Small circulation east of the Lesser Antilles

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Re:

#21 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 08, 2011 12:25 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
StarmanHDB wrote:A very clear swirl, but any possible convection is firing about 350 miles west of that circulation. Does this swirl have any chance of really developing?


Well, unless the easterly shear relaxes, that swirl has very little chance of sustaining itself.

Looks like shear is abatting a bit ahead of the Lesser Antilles maybe allowing for more convection soon.
:rarrow: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: Area near Barbados

#22 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Aug 08, 2011 12:39 pm

ROCK wrote:this has got to be the area the 0Z GFS is developomg as it enters the EGOM....0Z NOGAPS sees it also....

can i get a link for those
0 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Area near Barbados

#23 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 08, 2011 12:54 pm

Kohlecane wrote:
ROCK wrote:this has got to be the area the 0Z GFS is developomg as it enters the EGOM....0Z NOGAPS sees it also....

can i get a link for those


6Z GFS saw it but the 12Z drops it...

12Z NOGAPS not so much

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
0 likes   
Top
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1733
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:
Contact OuterBanker

#24 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:37 pm

I don't think it's a shear problem. Shear is okay there, it's just lots of dry air. I think this week is out for development. Odd for early August. Once the MJO is favorable I think things will pop.
0 likes   
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: Small circulation east of the Lesser Antilles

#25 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:19 pm

i was thinking same we going have break for this week into early next week
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#26 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 09, 2011 5:30 am

Convection on the increase this morning with the twave...
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#27 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 09, 2011 5:36 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N50W TO 18N49W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N50W AND AN AREA OF HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS
FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 51W-60W. TPW IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE
MOISTURE AND SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.




$$
HUFFMAN
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#28 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 09, 2011 5:52 am

Looks like an healthy blob approaching Barbados and the Windwards islands.
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#29 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 09, 2011 6:11 am

The LLC that I have been tracking the last couple of days is well east, near 14N & 52W, of the area of convection east of Barbados this morning.
The vorticity appears to be dying little by little.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TheBurn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 540
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:00 pm
Location: Rincon, PR

Re: Small circulation east of the Lesser Antilles

#30 Postby TheBurn » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:02 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cycloneye, jhpigott, lolitx, sasha_B and 29 guests