Systems moving into the GOMEX

[crimi481]

I am surprised yhere are not more folks commenting on how last 6-7 systems that were forecast to enter Gulf (and intensify to strong TD or min Cane) completely took NHC (and most Mets) by surprise.
Almost all of these systems ( starting early last summer) virtually shredded -or "transferred" their energy in small fast movung spurts thta ended up traveling around that huge anchored miud-west dome high pressure

In short, in almost all of theese cases ( in or near S., Gulf area) - just 12-18 hours after Models and NHC state that all conditions basically favorable for intensifying, and landfalling on Gulf coast somewhere
Then...'poof -gone.
Is something wrong with atmosphere over tge Gulf?

[AJC3]

I am surprised yhere are not more folks commenting on how last 6-7 systems that were forecast to enter Gulf (and intensify to strong TD or min Cane) completely took NHC (and most Mets) by surprise.
Almost all of these systems ( starting early last summer) virtually shredded -or "transferred" their energy in small fast movung spurts thta ended up traveling around that huge anchored miud-west dome high pressure

In short, in almost all of theese cases ( in or near S., Gulf area) - just 12-18 hours after Models and NHC state that all conditions basically favorable for intensifying, and landfalling on Gulf coast somewhere
Then...'poof -gone.
Is something wrong with atmosphere over tge Gulf?

I've looked through the 2010-2011 NHC advisory archive. The reason not more folks are commenting on this is because it's not true.

(this topic has been split off into TT)

[Fyzn94]

I am surprised yhere are not more folks commenting on how last 6-7 systems that were forecast to enter Gulf (and intensify to strong TD or min Cane) completely took NHC (and most Mets) by surprise.
Almost all of these systems ( starting early last summer) virtually shredded -or "transferred" their energy in small fast movung spurts thta ended up traveling around that huge anchored miud-west dome high pressure

In short, in almost all of theese cases ( in or near S., Gulf area) - just 12-18 hours after Models and NHC state that all conditions basically favorable for intensifying, and landfalling on Gulf coast somewhere
Then...'poof -gone.
Is something wrong with atmosphere over tge Gulf?

If you are referring to what happened with Don, he was sheared apart by the dry high pressure area over Texas.

[crimi481]

I wish I had Satallite replays of Storms forecasted to enter Gulf, since June, 2010
Remember? They really acted strange, and actions not even mentioned/forecasted by NHC -or anyone.
Tghe "discussion" writers could not understand it either

[vbhoutex]

I wish I had Satallite replays of Storms forecasted to enter Gulf, since June, 2010
Remember? They really acted strange, and actions not even mentioned/forecasted by NHC -or anyone.
Tghe "discussion" writers could not understand it either

Are you able to provide the proof of your assertion? I doubt it.
AJC3 is a professional met and has stated that your assertion is not correct. I know he can provide proof. I would suggest you let this go.

[NDG]

I am surprised yhere are not more folks commenting on how last 6-7 systems that were forecast to enter Gulf (and intensify to strong TD or min Cane) completely took NHC (and most Mets) by surprise.
Almost all of these systems ( starting early last summer) virtually shredded -or "transferred" their energy in small fast movung spurts thta ended up traveling around that huge anchored miud-west dome high pressure

In short, in almost all of theese cases ( in or near S., Gulf area) - just 12-18 hours after Models and NHC state that all conditions basically favorable for intensifying, and landfalling on Gulf coast somewhere
Then...'poof -gone.
Is something wrong with atmosphere over tge Gulf?

I think I know what you are refering to, I think, with so many misspelled words is hard to get it the first time.
Yes, the conditions in the northern half of the GOM have were not the best last year & so far this year. I am sure it has to do a lot with the heat ridge creating the conditions of dry air and shearing NE winds in the atmosphere. But the SW GOM/BOC have not seen these bad conditions.
I am not sure about getting the NHC forecasters & some other pro-mets by surprise to the effects on the storms of these conditions other than to what happened to TS Don, I do remember that last year TS Bonnie was forecasted to become a hurricane in the GOM by the models, but as soon it started nearing the NE GOM it weakened due to the dry and shearing conditions.
Is no surprise, is just bad models that have not seen the bad UL conditions that have been around in the northern GOM for the past year when a tropical system has been forecasted to go into that region.