Couple late night thoughts to ponder

Stormchaser16 · #1 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 8:53 pm

The wave near PR and DR first.....

Good convection with this system however there is no defined LLC at this point. This is mainly because of strong shear off to its north(note the axis of the wave is more W-E).... if this convection holds together, like i mentioned in an earlier post the shear is forecast to move towards the north and away from the system. You can actually note this on latest IR imagery(northern clouds from shear zone are beggining to lift north).... as this occurs the system could develop into something slowly. Where at that point models take it towards Florida. I am STILL for the idea that this system become entrained in a frontal boundary and move along the eastern seaboard making for a rainy situation from florida to new england......(depending on the exact progressiveness of the trough/front).

As for the CV system.....

Unlike the PR/DR wave this system HAS a good circulation, HOWEVER it lacks convective activity, and until this increases, i see no rush by the NHC to uprgade it to a TD/TS. Nonetheless i am sticking to saying that by sometime tommorow afternoon we will be looking at our next tropical system. Again i cant pinpoint the exact track of the system, however the longer it takes to develop the more south it stays, and the bigger a headache along the eastern seaboard it could become.STAY TUNED!

mike01205 · #2 Postby **mike01205** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:01 pm

Very nice job Ryan

Im sorry I have not visited this site more frequently, but I was working this summer and was very busy.

It is great to see you have grown as much as you have.

Keep up the good work!!!!!!!!

Stormchaser16 · #3 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:03 pm

Thanks alot Mike, it really means alot to me to have people comment me on my work....... Id really like to chat with some of the more experienced people here so i can learn more, i am always looking for ways to learn more about the weather, as one day i hope to become a meteorologist. Right now i gotta finish stupid high school lol.......

mf_dolphin · #4 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:28 pm

We'll have to see of the high builds to the north. If it does then it may shunt the system to the west. Where's my crystal ball? ;-)

Stormchaser16 · #5 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:33 pm

All depends how quickly the system develops and how strong it gets

mf_dolphin · #6 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:40 pm

Agreed but at this point zI don't see any sign of this storm building rapidly. The weaker it stays the more likely it is to be influnced by the forecast high. Watching things develop or not develop is what makes this stuff fun! :-)

Colin · #7 Postby **Colin** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:00 pm

It's looking more and more likely that the East Coast won't have a problem with this system...

Stormchaser16 · #8 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:06 pm

Well MF, the weaker it remains the better chance it has to stay further south...... and at this point it looks as if this is the scenario....

And Colin..... i disagree, with the system looking like it may stay further south, this would mean more headaches for the eastern seaboard.

Colin · #9 Postby **Colin** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:07 pm

OHHHH...my bad...

Stormchaser16 · #10 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:32 pm

Heh dont worry about it.......

Ok, wow im killing myself with these tropical systems here, looks as if the PR wave wants to develop.... and the models like it somewhat, and they have it taking a LONG time to reach florida.... (no strong stearing where it is at) my theory of a stalled front in the East IS STILL HOLDING STRONG, and it picks up the PR wave(or whatever is to become of it)...... it moves northward along the front, and the models are really killing new england as the frontal moisture,ULL and the tropical system collide..... the only odd man out is the CV system.... ill say it again the longer it takes to develop and the weaker it is as it crosses the atlantic the MORE of a headache it becomes for the eastern seaboard.......

Stormchaser16 · #11 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:55 pm

Here is a good look............

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Shear is definately moving off to the north of the system by PR/DR.... decreasing right to the north of it and increasing farther north, shows the zone is heading away....Fairly signifigant decreases as well..... from 5 KTs immediately north up to 20kts! Meaning shear should only be around 5-10 KTs right around the system.....

Colin · #12 Postby **Colin** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 11:02 pm

Do you think E PA will get in on the heavy rains if this situation does come to fruition, or will it be mainly a New England/Canada rain event?

Stormchaser16 · #13 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 11:12 pm

E Pa would get in on this if this all does come to fruition...... which is *possible* but not imminent at this point....

On another note....The CV storm is moving WNW and the circulation is weakening.....Bad news for those who want this thing to develop.... good news if you WANT this thing to stay further south i suppose :roll:

...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ ... _full.html

A little disorganized on that northern side...... outflow winds have definately weakened from 15 to close to 5 knots......... Strongest winds are 35 KTS only found in that convection on the south side..... Near the center winds are 25-30 kTS varying....Winds right around the center are mostly from only one direction.As opposed to earlier where the circulation was well intact. So it does appear it is having some trouble getting organized, ill wait until tommorow morning to see whether or not i change my forecast time of classification as a TD or TS.....As of right now im still sticking to tommorow afternoon sometime(12-5PM)

Couple late night thoughts to ponder

Couple late night thoughts to ponder

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