The annual outlook is actually driven by insurance companies' need to have some sort of an estimate of total potential impact over the coming season on their claimants. They need to have money available to pay out for claims.
One could argue that releasing these predictions to the general public may do more harm than good. The number of predicted storms each season should have zero impact on how the general public prepare for the season.
We certainly cannot predict with confidence how many storms will be named or where individual storms will track in the upcoming season. However, we can identify atmospheric and oceanic flow patterns of the current year and look back to previous years with similar patterns (analog years). From analog years, we can derive some insight as to where storms may form and track over the coming season. That's how Dr. Klotzbach determines impact potential for the Caribbean and the U.S.
Klotzbach / Gray 2011 forecasts (August is up)
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OuterBanker
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Doing my annual cleaning of my office and weeding out things and found an April 2008 CSU forecast. Just out of curiosity I thumbed through it (is 12 pages shorter this years for one thing). Although most say that the April forecast is inaccurate in 2008 it was darn near dead on. By contrast 2007 really sucked, activity was half what they predicted in April (in all fairness, no one got that year right).
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cycloneye
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Re: Dr Klotzbach / Dr Gray Dec:17/9/5 Apr:16/9/5 June:
The CSU June forecast will be released shortly.Let's see how they see the season with new data since April by analizing all the factors.
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cycloneye
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Re: Dr Klotzbach / Dr Gray Dec:17/9/5 Apr:16/9/5 June:
June forecast=16/9/5
No change in the numbers from the April forecast,but they still see a very active season. For the Caribbean,they have a bleak forecast. Those from there,go to the Caribbean & Centralamerica thread and see what I mean.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2011.pdf
No change in the numbers from the April forecast,but they still see a very active season. For the Caribbean,they have a bleak forecast. Those from there,go to the Caribbean & Centralamerica thread and see what I mean.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2011.pdf
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: Dr Klotzbach / Dr Gray Dec:17/9/5 Apr:16/9/5 June:16/9/5
Louisiana has the third highest chance of geeting hit by a hurricane this season(47%) of all the coastal states, what are we going to do? 
Seriously what is the point in trying to predict the chances of who will get by a hurricane 1-4 months from now. That is like trying to predict in February which state in the US will get hit by the most tornados. Uh I give Kansas a 89% chance of seeing at least a EF-1 by October. There I did it.
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cycloneye
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Re: Dr Klotzbach / Dr Gray 2011 forecasts
August Forecast by Klotzbach / Gray
They mantained the same numbers as the June ones,16/9/5,but there are interesting things in the report that all have to read.They also have a special Caribbean forecast that they are forecasting to be very active.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ug2011.pdf
They mantained the same numbers as the June ones,16/9/5,but there are interesting things in the report that all have to read.They also have a special Caribbean forecast that they are forecasting to be very active.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ug2011.pdf
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StormClouds63
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Re: Dr Klotzbach/Dr Gray 2011 forecasts (August is up)
If Emily does not reach hurricane status, that would leave the numbers at 11/9/5 ... if she does (below cat 3), 11/8/5 ... is that correct?
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OuterBanker
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Re: Klotzbach / Gray 2011 forecasts (August is up)
Cycloneye. Lots of changes. I do like the chart now included "POST-31 JULY HURRICANE IMPACT PROBABILITIES FOR 2011 (NUMBERS IN PARENTHESES ARE LONG-PERIOD FULL SEASON AVERAGES)". I think that is the first time they have done that. And I assumed that all were 1.5 higher each this year, but if you do the math they aren't. Looks like they really do take each area and calculate the risk. Impressive.
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cycloneye
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Re: Klotzbach / Gray 2011 forecasts (August is up)
OuterBanker wrote:Cycloneye. Lots of changes. I do like the chart now included "POST-31 JULY HURRICANE IMPACT PROBABILITIES FOR 2011 (NUMBERS IN PARENTHESES ARE LONG-PERIOD FULL SEASON AVERAGES)". I think that is the first time they have done that. And I assumed that all were 1.5 higher each this year, but if you do the math they aren't. Looks like they really do take each area and calculate the risk. Impressive.
Agree 100%. This forecast in my view is the best I have seen by this team with all the details of every factor and the Caribbean section is A+.
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Meteorcane
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Yep very good forecast, I personally disagree with thier major landfall call for the US, right now the pattern really only gives a shot at such a strong system to maybe the Outer Banks and Deep Texas...and maybe S.Florida late in the season.
I thought last year the pattern would shift through august but it stayed, and I'm seeing some very similar patterns emerging this year...though not quite as strongly...the pattern this year is nearly a clone for 2010, its certainly the strongest analog at the moment of recent times. Things can change of course, I'd be surprised if the pattern was quite so set as it was last year but you never know.
Other then that the number call looks good to me!
I thought last year the pattern would shift through august but it stayed, and I'm seeing some very similar patterns emerging this year...though not quite as strongly...the pattern this year is nearly a clone for 2010, its certainly the strongest analog at the moment of recent times. Things can change of course, I'd be surprised if the pattern was quite so set as it was last year but you never know.
Other then that the number call looks good to me!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HurricaneFan
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Re:
KWT wrote:Yep very good forecast, I personally disagree with thier major landfall call for the US, right now the pattern really only gives a shot at such a strong system to maybe the Outer Banks and Deep Texas...and maybe S.Florida late in the season.
I thought last year the pattern would shift through august but it stayed, and I'm seeing some very similar patterns emerging this year...though not quite as strongly...the pattern this year is nearly a clone for 2010, its certainly the strongest analog at the moment of recent times. Things can change of course, I'd be surprised if the pattern was quite so set as it was last year but you never know.
Other then that the number call looks good to me!
So does that mean that storms will travel a bit further west if its the same pattern but not as strong?
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