1st U.S Tropical Threat

lebron23 · #1 Postby **lebron23** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:15 pm

The mods can go ahead and make this into a poll

When will the U.S have there first tropical threat?
July 21-31
August 1-15
August 16-30
Sept 1-15
Sept 16-30
Won't have a threat this year

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:19 pm

Made the poll lebron23. It closes on July 31rst at 8:17 PM EDT.

#3 Postby **Extratropical94** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:25 pm

Voted for the second half of August.
Does threat mean a storm forecast to move towards the CONUS or an actual watch/warning for a part of the US coastline?

lebron23 · #4 Postby **lebron23** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:30 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Voted for the second half of August.
Does threat mean a storm forecast to move towards the CONUS or an actual watch/warning for a part of the US coastline?

Means actual storm hitting the U.S

#5 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 7:35 pm

I voted for the first half of August. I think the wave currently in the central Atlantic will impact Florida, Louisiana, or Texas right at the beginning of August.

#6 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:54 am

I voted for the second half of August. Global models don't show much activity until mid to late August.

Hurricaneman · #7 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:13 pm

I basically said this week due to 90l

HurricaneWarning92 · #8 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:18 pm

voted for 2nd half of August.

HurricaneRyan · #9 Postby **HurricaneRyan** » Tue Jul 26, 2011 1:51 pm

The second half of August. I can't really see a tropical threat this year for the US so early this year. I think there will be a fish storm, a hurricane that hits the caribbean and Mexico, and THEN we get a hit from a Tropical System.

plasticup · #10 Postby **plasticup** » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:28 pm

If 90L turns into Don, it will probably threaten Texas with some welcome rain.

Don't know if that counts...

HurricaneWarning92 · #11 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:32 pm

plasticup wrote:If 90L turns into Don, it will probably threaten Texas with some welcome rain.

Don't know if that counts...

Yes but i dont think "Don" would last till August. So 22% of the people that voted would be correct. 8-)

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:33 pm

plasticup wrote:If 90L turns into Don, it will probably threaten Texas with some welcome rain.

Don't know if that counts...

Yes,if that occurs,it counts as the first U.S landfall in 2011 and since 2008,unless it tracks south of Brownsville.

#13 Postby **OuterBanker** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 1:04 pm

Looks like July 21-31 is gonna take it (I guessed Aug 1-10). Probably a sure thing. Also looks like we are going to be in for a very long active season.

StormClouds63 · #14 Postby **StormClouds63** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 6:39 pm

1st U.S. Hurricane Threat
Gert
3rd week of August

Hurricaneman · #15 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:30 pm

after what happened with Don, that shouldnt even count

#16 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 9:24 am

Will Don even be considered a tropical cyclone at landfall? Was there a closed circulation at the time?

#17 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:30 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Will Don even be considered a tropical cyclone at landfall? Was there a closed circulation at the time?

LOL.. You are not kidding there. I mean, Don was weakening so rapidly at landfall. I have never seen a tropical cyclone fizzle out so rapidly along the coast without major disruption influences i.e. mountainous terrain etc...

That extreme dry air environment around Texas just completely got entrained into the circulation and dissolved Don. It was amazing to see how that storm became such a dud in terms of not bringing substantial rain relief to portions of Texas.

Hurricaneman · #18 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:10 pm

due to the events with Don, the July 21-31 will probably not happen but because of 91l, it may be the people who guessed august 1-10 that may happen

HurricaneWarning92 · #19 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:46 pm

I believe it does count because the title says "threat" not "landfall" and warnings were issued before the storm made landfalls.

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