So like....what's the chances?

[azsnowman]

WoooHoooo.....the old *mountain man* gets to post in the tropics for the *first* time!

Just curious, what's the chances of us here in Az. getting BLASTED from Ignacio?? See...........I've NEVER paid ANY attention to the tropics before, why you ask? I live at "7,000 feet" in elevation!!

Dennis

[Stephanie]

So far Ignacio looks to heading north through at least Wednesday. He's pretty compact and he looks alittle bottom heavy with the convection. I don't remember seeing anything like this before. I can't imagine that you wouldn't get some kind of precipitation from him. I sure hope it's not a gully-washer though! That's the last thing that you guys need! :o

[Stormsfury]

Slow-moving systems are the hardest to predict and subject to large errors especially beyond 72 hrs. But there is some potential for Ignacio (or what's left) to be a moisture supplier to the SW states ...

SF

[Stephanie]

See DelStormlover's post about EPAC storm in 1960. Hurricane Diana made the same track as forecasted for Ignacio at almost the same week of August in 1960.

[JetMaxx]

If Ignacio takes the latest NHC forecast track...I expect next weekend to be very wet and windy in southern Arizona and SE California.

I don't remember the name, but there was an EPAC hurricane that tracked on a similar path back in the mid/late 1970's and produced 70 mph gusts in Yuma...along with serious flash flooding.

[Andrew92]

Was it Kathleen of 1976?

-Andrew92

[chadtm80]

This is kathleen

[chadtm80]

Hurricane Liza same year

[chadtm80]

September 1976: North-northwestward moving Hurricane Kathleen made landfall in northern Baja California with the remnants moving into southern California. Hurricane Kathleen brought the southwest the highest sustained winds ever associated with an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 57 mph at Yuma on the 10th. Six to 12 inches of rainfall was observed in the central and southern mountains of southern California on the 10th and 11th. Most of Ocotillo, California was destroyed by flooding and three persons drowned. This occurred during the El Niño of 1976-77

[azsnowman]

Thanks folks.......so, what your saying, "Don't stow the rubbers away just yet!" RIGHT??

Dennis

[JetMaxx]

I wouldn't Dennis...it looks like it's coming your way..

It was indeed Kathleen in 1976 that caused all the havoc in Yuma. Liza killed over 400 in the LaPaz area of Baja California when an earthen dam collapsed....Liza I recall was a very powerful hurricane..130 mph or so.

[MonsoonDude]

Honestly Dennis, It looks like it will go straight up the Gulf of California till the Late part into Next weekend. A Northwesterly steering wind will be in place in Sounthern Caliornia where i live, and a South-Southwest wind for you. It looks like Ignacio will miss the Mountains of southern california and go into Southern Arizona First, before moving Northeasterward in your location....So i am thinking by looking at the latest models, that that might just get you good this weekend, into next week. till then, all we can do is wait for it.

Kevin

[azsnowman]

"COME ON IGGY!" Just in time for Labor Day Weekend of course! When I was kid growing up on the Fort Apache Indian Reservation, I can remember (yes....I can remember back THAT FAR "LOL!") a few Labor Day weekends were a TOTAL bust from these hurricanes in the Gulf.........that weekend is BIGGEST Intertribal Fair and Rodeo in the West "YeeeeeHawwww!"

Dennis