Ignacio

[cycloneye]

http://www.hwn.org/hepz34us.htm

Oh boy this little system has really turned into a very dangerous cane as it may be a major cane before a landfall.

[chadtm80]

[weatherlover427]

Which one of those is the forecasted landfall point at or near? :?

[Stormsfury]

Which one of those is the forecasted landfall point at or near? :?

The actual plotted dots with timelines are the NHC forecast track, but note the shaded white area is the variable window for Ignacio.

[wx247]

OMG! I have been out of touch this weekend from a computer. It looks like the SW U.S. could have a tropical system on their hands. :o

[Lindaloo]

Anyone know the last time they had a cane in that area?

[weatherlover427]

From the 9:30 AM AFD out of the Los Angeles/Oxnard office:

STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO AS CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE IT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD BE A PLAYER IN THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

[Anonymous]

This IGNACIO is going to become one of the biggest playaz in the US Southwest over the next few days.

There is going to be some major-league flooding there.

What happens when you add torrential rains to desert-dry terrain?

Answer: Devastating Flash Floods.


-Jeb

[wx247]

Exactly Jeb. And the fact that many areas have had fires... that actually adds to the flooding threat.

[Colin]

Wow...the Southwest better get ready for this! :o

[Stephanie]

Yeah, this is a pretty scary time for the SW - especially AZ. Just look at what happened the other day by Dennis with the 3" of rain!

That's a good question Lindaloo!

[Stormsfury]

Ignacio leveled off this afternoon due to an eyewall replacement cycle.

HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003

THE INTENSIFICATION EVENT NOTED EARLIER TODAY HAS ENDED. TRMM AND
SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT IGNACIO HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE RECENT LEVELING OFF IN
INTENSITY. AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS
OF THE SEA OF CORTES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

IGNACIO HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHWARD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
TO THE NORTHEAST OF IGNACIO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF IGNACIO FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[wx247]

Quick question from me here in the peanut gallery...

Since Ignacio is expected to be in the Gulf of C. what are they expecting to weaken this thing like their forecast suggests?

[Stormsfury]

Quick question from me here in the peanut gallery...

Since Ignacio is expected to be in the Gulf of C. what are they expecting to weaken this thing like their forecast suggests?

Land interaction. Plus at the current time, it's even more difficult to predict the eyewall replacement cycles, which Ignacio is currently undergoing. Sometimes, the cycles take just a few hours, sometimes a full day, and sometimes, not at all.

SF

[wx247]

Thanks Storms. Great reply and timely, as usual.