2010 Weekly Predictions - Looking Back

[Andrew92]

I will offer now a look back at some of predictions, focusing primarily on the storms themselves, but I will throw a few other features afterwards.

Alex and TD 2 - These two do not apply as the first time I took a crack at this was just after TD 2 came and dissipated over Mexico.

Bonnie - I saw the disturbance, but I didn't really see it developing. Unfortunately for me, it did, but I am not surprised that it was only a minimal tropical storm. I still contend that that time in July is a very difficult time to get tropical cyclones to develop.

Colin - I accurately predicted the development, but I was way slow on the track and I also called for it to become a hurricane. Overall, this was a pretty bad forecast that I gave myself an F on.

TD 5 - The track was pretty good, but I overestimated its development. I called for a tropical storm, twice (the second chance being when it looped back over water), but neither took place. Not a great forecast, but not the worst either.

Danielle - This was my groundbreaking forecast. I predicted almost every aspect of this storm correct. Not only were the track and intensity well-called, but the timing of certain events of both things was also very good. The only real blip is that I predicted Danielle to be no more than a C2 hurricane, and it became a C4 instead. That said, there is some chatter amongst a few members that they think Danielle could be downgraded to a C3. We'll see...still off on intensity, but can't take away an otherwise great forecast.

Earl - Another very well-forecasted storm overall. In the early part, Earl did take a bit more southerly of a track than I anticipated, and intensified a little earlier too. After that, however, the track, intensity, and timing of both were again very good. The intensity tailed off for me late in its life when it weakened to a tropical storm. However, arguments from Canada indicate Earl may have been a minimal hurricane anyway, which is what I called for when striking Nova Scotia. I also did a great job in forecasting tropical storm conditions for the east coast, but no landfall.

Fiona - Oh dear. Well, I saw its development and early intensification pretty well! After that, it became a (fortunately) sordid story. Models were split in two camps, with some like the GFS dissipating Fiona, and some like the Euro tracking it to the Carolinas as a major hurricane. In a fleeting moment, I sided with the Euro as it appeared to be doing better overall. Of course, the GFS side is what was closer to happening. Looking back at this storm, I called for Earl and Fiona to play similar to Edouard and Fran in 1996. However, there was yet a third behind both, Gustav, that struggled and couldn't get off the ground. Danielle also came first of this 2010 trio and set the tone (like Edouard), while Earl initially struggled (like Fran). Therefore, I probably in hindsight should have called for the Gustav (1996, not the famous one from two years ago) scenario to be Fiona's best analog choice.

Gaston - Didn't see this coming, but not surprised it never had a chance.

Hermine - Never saw this in a weekly prediction either. What worked against me here is it developed on Labor Day, a week which I extended to cover for the whole holiday weekend. That extra day caused a world of hurt here.

Igor - I would have to say that this is probably the storm I forecasted the best. I saw its initial development and parts of its early intensification well. The rapid intensification part was another matter, but from there the forecast was about as successful as I could have made it. The track, intensity, and timing of were executed to near perfection. I called for Bermuda to get hit by tropical storm force winds, but the threshhold of hurricane winds did hit the islands briefly. I also understimated what Igor would do in Newfoundland. Still, overall, a magnificent forecast, best of the season in my opinion.

Julia - Another overall decent evaluation. Development came a bit sooner than I thought, and it intensified a lot more than I predicted. Barring those two things, though, I did see this storm never threatening land, taking the general track that it did, and dissipating when it did.

Karl - This was a problematic storm for me. The issue was timing, as the track was generally off by about 24 hours. I did predict a tropical storm for the Yucatan, but I predicted it would weaken to a tropical depression and spend more time over land. But Karl quickly moved across and weakened less than I thought. It was when Karl re-emerged that I thought it would speed up, making landfall as a strong tropical storm. The faster movement over land allowed Karl to become a C3 storm instead, and make landfall a bit further south than I predicted. The general track itself wasn't terrible, but timing and intensity were not good.

Lisa - This storm followed a bit of a weird path. Timing of a lot of things with storm was off, but a lot of these things did still at least happen. I had some people disagreeing with me when I said I thought Lisa would become a hurricane, but it did become one, even if just briefly. As I had said, every storm that developed near where Lisa did close to when it did had become a hurricane on its way out to sea - even if just for a moment. Overall, a mixed evaluation, but not too bad either considering it never threatened land.

Matthew - When timing of a storm to develop is days off, you've got a problem. When that storm also hits land, the problems multiply. That's basically what happened with my prediction for Matthew. Developing earlier than anticipated also hurt manners a lot in my opinion. Overall, I did a very poor job on this storm.

Nicole - Another mixed evaluation. I had the track kind of down, along with what would come afterwards, but I had it striking Florida. I never thought Jamaica would receive such strong impacts from this storm, and that it would veer east of Florida.

Otto - The intensity was quite a bit off, but the track and timing of it was excellent. Another mixed, but generally decent, evaluation.

Paula - Another problematic storm. I had it running into Belize as a strong tropical storm and dissipating. But it recurved over the Caribbean, which allowed it to become a very small hurricane. It did dissipate close to when I said it would, but nowhere near where I said it would. Overall, I predicted this storm poorly.

Richard - I didn't even develop 97L as when it was taking place, models were generally not developing it due to running into Nicaragua. But it went further north than initially forecast, and the prediction only went downhill from there. To not call for development, and see it become a hurricane, is not acceptable! One of the worst predictions of the year, if not the worst.

Shary - I saw the name coming, but it was the wrong storm. The storm that became Shary was a total surprise to me. Fortunately, it also caused only some rain showers over Bermuda. Still, a botched prediction.

Tomas - I saw the storm coming, but had it named Shary at first. It also developed a lot faster than I initially called for. But after that, this storm's prediction finally ended a month of frustration that was October. Weakening to a tropical depression was not called for, but the Haiti strike intensity was dead-on, as was the track leading up to that. After that, due to no landfall, it stayed a bit stronger than anticipated, but still a very well-predicted storm overall.

There was also an invest at around the same time as TD 5 (forget the number) that I had developing into what would have been Danielle. I predicted this due to a unanimous model consensus. However, I did note that during the time period it took place, nothing had ever developed from a tropical wave so far to the north, and I was a bit leery of the prediction. I wish I had put my money where my mouth was and called for no development!

A couple of invests did catch my eye in November, but I accurately predicted no development from any of them.

When looking back overall, I have a generally good grasp on what a storm's track might be (except Fiona of course). Intensity is always an albatross, I don't think anyone will ever deny that, but I did a passable job on a number of storms this year. I was a little inconsistent in both arenas on timing. I was very good on storms like Danielle, Earl, Igor, and Tomas, and that helped make those predictions as good as they were. But I was also off on a few, namely Matthew but also Karl. Let me tell you, being off on timing can easily wreck any prediction.

I learned a lot of things from these weekly predictions that I'm excited to further apply in 2011. So good night to 2010, a tough year for Central America that I'm sure a lot of people there are glad is about over, and a very lucky one for the US.

Next prediction will be in June of 2011.

-Andrew92

[Hylian Auree]

Nice list o_O
My best predicted storm this year has got to be Tomas: I predicted pretty accurately, from its genesis to its 'unexpected' west-southwesterly path. I was sure the building ridge to its northwest would have more effect on its track than the forecasts claimed. I even noted the wave before it was mentioned in the TWO Magnificent year all in all.

[frigidice77]

I still don't get how every hurricane missed the U.S.

[Hylian Auree]

I still don't get how every hurricane missed the U.S.

"The Azores/Bermuda high has been located further east than usual, and there has been anomalous low pressure over the U.S. East Coast," Lea said. "This pattern means that storms tend to get steered by upper-level troughs which steer storms away from the U.S. coastline into the open Atlantic. In addition, there has been anomalous high pressure over the U.S. Gulf Coast, which has deflected storms into Mexico or towards Cuba." Here's probably why.

[frigidice77]

Why does everyone say the U.S was lucky this year? What about Hermine and Alex and Earl?

[cycloneye]

Why does everyone say the U.S was lucky this year? What about Hermine and Alex and Earl?

No direct hit.Damage was not plenty in the U.S by the indirect effects from those.

[Hylian Auree]

Compared to other seasons, any impact those storms had on the US was marginal.

[Migle]

Any thoughts on 2011 right now Andrew?

[Andrew92]

I shudder to think right now about what 2011 might be like, because almost every season that I predict this long in advance is way off from what I think. One exception is 2004, when I had a feeling the US was under the gun early on.

A couple things I will get out in the open: I think there will not be as many named storms or hurricanes in 2011, but I think the US will get at least one nasty strike, maybe two. I know this is possibly for another topic, but the names Don and Harvey are making me shiver a little bit right now. Don has this weird Allen-like sound to it to me, and Harvey just sounds like a big, bad, evil storm to contend with. Therefore, if my vibe is right, the Gulf will really have to watch out. However, this is only a vibe, and I have no idea what the steering currents will look like for real in 2011, other than the US likely getting a hurricane hit somewhere. Three years in a row has not happened since 1886, and I just don't see it happening this time.

I also have a hunch we could have another June development that makes a run at going for a hurricane, but probably coming up short (ala the 2005 version of Arlene, incidentally).

But lots of time to worry about that. Let's just be thankful that the US got through this very busy season with only some effects from Alex, Bonnie, Earl, and Hermine. Central America really took a pounding this year. I wonder if there are any charities in my area that could help those people out.

-Andrew92

[neospaceblue]

I shudder to think right now about what 2011 might be like, because almost every season that I predict this long in advance is way off from what I think. One exception is 2004, when I had a feeling the US was under the gun early on.

A couple things I will get out in the open: I think there will not be as many named storms or hurricanes in 2011, but I think the US will get at least one nasty strike, maybe two. I know this is possibly for another topic, but the names Don and Harvey are making me shiver a little bit right now. Don has this weird Allen-like sound to it to me, and Harvey just sounds like a big, bad, evil storm to contend with. Therefore, if my vibe is right, the Gulf will really have to watch out. However, this is only a vibe, and I have no idea what the steering currents will look like for real in 2011, other than the US likely getting a hurricane hit somewhere. Three years in a row has not happened since 1886, and I just don't see it happening this time.

I also have a hunch we could have another June development that makes a run at going for a hurricane, but probably coming up short (ala the 2005 version of Arlene, incidentally).

But lots of time to worry about that. Let's just be thankful that the US got through this very busy season with only some effects from Alex, Bonnie, Earl, and Hermine. Central America really took a pounding this year. I wonder if there are any charities in my area that could help those people out.

-Andrew92

I have a similar feeling about Harvey. Georgia has been lucky for the last eleven decades, and I have this weird feeling that Harvey '11 might end that streak. On the other hand, Don just feels like it fits with a Bret '81, Dean '83 or Danielle '92 type storm.

[frigidice77]

I dont think my area is gonna get hit.If we have been lucky for eleven decades. There is no possible way for a hurricane to strike. I just have a feeling about a Opal, andrew or katrina like storm. The U.s. is going to take a beting.

[Andrew92]

I shudder to think right now about what 2011 might be like, because almost every season that I predict this long in advance is way off from what I think. One exception is 2004, when I had a feeling the US was under the gun early on.

A couple things I will get out in the open: I think there will not be as many named storms or hurricanes in 2011, but I think the US will get at least one nasty strike, maybe two. I know this is possibly for another topic, but the names Don and Harvey are making me shiver a little bit right now. Don has this weird Allen-like sound to it to me, and Harvey just sounds like a big, bad, evil storm to contend with. Therefore, if my vibe is right, the Gulf will really have to watch out. However, this is only a vibe, and I have no idea what the steering currents will look like for real in 2011, other than the US likely getting a hurricane hit somewhere. Three years in a row has not happened since 1886, and I just don't see it happening this time.

I also have a hunch we could have another June development that makes a run at going for a hurricane, but probably coming up short (ala the 2005 version of Arlene, incidentally).

But lots of time to worry about that. Let's just be thankful that the US got through this very busy season with only some effects from Alex, Bonnie, Earl, and Hermine. Central America really took a pounding this year. I wonder if there are any charities in my area that could help those people out.

-Andrew92

I have a similar feeling about Harvey. Georgia has been lucky for the last eleven decades, and I have this weird feeling that Harvey '11 might end that streak. On the other hand, Don just feels like it fits with a Bret '81, Dean '83 or Danielle '92 type storm.

The thing is, I thought the same kind of thing you have for Don, about names like Charley and Ike. Just initially seems to have that weird-ish, moderate tropical storm rainmaker sound to it, and then turns out nasty.

I have to admit, I didn't have the hairiest vibes in the world about Don when I first saw it, but my mind has changed radically since then. I really do think that name sounds like a Gilbert or Allen-type storm. But bad as Harvey, probably not. I smell a similar track to Georges, but a bit further north from the Caribbean and much stronger. We'll see though.

-Andrew92

[Hurricane Jed]

I'm worried about the northeast. Its been over 19 years, since Bob in 1991, that a hurricane made landfall up in the New England area.

[brunota2003]

I hope we get some decent RI'ing hurricanes this coming season (out to sea, away from any one). I really would like to continue working on predicting when RI is going to start. I did accurately predict a couple of the RI events this season...but the timing was a little off. The other RI events were before I started predicting, so am kind of excited for the early results and can't wait to try again. Sadly, a season like this past one (with multiple RI events), does not occur very often.