WHOA! Disturbance at 16N/25W.

#1 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 5:36 am

Just took a glance to see how that disturbance which moved off the west coast of Africa was looking and was quite surprised to see an apparent circulation spanning between 8N and 22N. It has spiral arms! That's a HUGE system. Convection is beginning to develop near the center, which I estimate to be near 16N/25W (give or take). I'm definitely surprised to see how much it has changed since yesterday, and how BIG it is now. This one could be interesting.

Steve H. · #2 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 5:55 am

That is a big area. Had to move my head to see the spiral, then realized they were linked :o . We'll see if convection fills in.

#3 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 6:09 am

Here's the image. Yellow arrows show the extent of the spiral and the center:

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/92L.jpg[img][/img]

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 6:24 am

It will be a fish system as already being at 16n is too north to move all the way west.Lows at 10-12n are less fish candidates.

Steve H. · #5 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 6:33 am

Well, we'll have to wait and see about that. Remember Gloria??

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 6:39 am

It's all in the timing - fish or not. It could track west across the Atlantic between 15N-20N and a ridge could build off the east U.S. coast to block it and shove it west to FL or the Carolinas. Can't rule anything out.

rainstorm · #7 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 7:43 am

too far north already

mf_dolphin · #8 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 8:15 am

rainstorm wrote:too far north already

You make a pretty strong statement with nothing to back-up your position. With high pressure north of it it should maintain a west track for the foreseeable future. The ridge looks to be even further south the more west you go so there's even a possibility of a WSW drift as it moves. Way too early to write off this IMO

ameriwx2003 · #9 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 8:18 am

Agreed and alot of it will depend on where it does develope as to if it may be a fish or not.I have a feeling this system will be something to be watched:):)

#10 Postby **wx247** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 8:32 am

The convection is nill at the center. It looks good as far as a circ. goes however.

rainstorm · #11 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 8:35 am

it looks like the azores high is rather weak. with a huge trough moving off the east coast, i think there will be plenty of opportunity for it to turn north. on the plus side, it is convectionless as usual, so it may continue west for awhile.

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 8:57 am

Way too early to draw a conclusion :roll:

..at least the tropics are getting a bit more interesting!!!

JCT777 · #13 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 8:58 am

rainstorm wrote:on the plus side, it is convectionless as usual, so it may continue west for awhile.

I think you just invented a word - convectionless. Cool! 8-)

I am taking a wait-and-see approach to any tropical disturbance, since so many have poofed this season or have not developed in seemingly favorable conditions.

stormie_skies · #14 Postby **stormie_skies** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 11:14 am

Wow...well, it certainly has size on its side! :o Track is always difficult to guess this far out....this one might be fun to watch 8-)

#15 Postby **alicia-w** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 11:32 am

I'm confused. The string for your globe graphic identifies this as 92L but I thought 92L was further west...??

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2003&MO=Aug&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=92L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Latest&ACTIVES=03-WPAC-12W.KROVANH,03-WPAC-13W.VAMCO,03-EPAC-90E.INVEST,03-WPAC-90W.INVEST,03-WPAC-91W.INVEST,03-ATL-92L.INVEST,03-CPAC-95C.INVEST,03-EPAC-97E.INVEST,03-WPAC-99W.INVEST,&STYLE=tables

JetMaxx · #16 Postby **JetMaxx** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 12:07 pm

It's FAR too early to know if it will recurve at sea....I remember seeing hurricane David move WSW before resuming a W-WNW course and plowing the Caribbean. The great Florida hurricane of September 1947 also moved WSW from the Cape Verde Islands area.

This is going to be a hurricane season that needs to be monitored very closely. SST's are as warm as I can ever remember....virtually no areas of the Atlantic Basin are below normal (and continues to warm)....areas south and SE of New England 4-6° C currently above normal -- the 26° C isotherm now within 50-100 miles of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. This it the type of oceanic heat content enviroment that breeds monsters....like Gilbert and Allen. :o :o

FYI -Here's today's NAVO 26° (79°) SST map. Look how close the pink shading (26-26.5° C) comes to SNE.
http://128.160.23.54/products/MCSST/HPCg26.gif

mf_dolphin · #17 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Wed Aug 20, 2003 12:13 pm

I think that was a local graphic so the 92L designation isn't correct since we now have an official 92L in the islands :-)

WHOA! Disturbance at 16N/25W.

WHOA! Disturbance at 16N/25W.

Here's the Image

Timing

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