Consecutive years of no hurricane landfalls

[wobblehead]

According to NOAA archives dating back to the 1800's there has been only three times that no hurricanes made landfall on the CONUS for two consecutive years. Those consecutive years are 1930 & 1931, 1981 & 1982, 2000 & 2001.
This begs the question will 2009 & 2010 be added to this list? This data also makes a statement that odds are the CONUS will encounter a landfall hurricane this year.

Posted for discussion.

[gatorcane]

The westerlies are about to really scream across the western Atlantic basin and gom. Looks like November out there. About the only candidate for a landfalling hurricane at this point is the eastern gom and Florida,

[wobblehead]

The westerlies are about to really scream across the western Atlantic basin and gom. Looks like November out there. About the only candidate for a landfalling hurricane at this point is the eastern gom and Florida,

I agree. I think we're probably in good shape up my way but you good folks down in south Florida need to stay sharp.
Although the CONUS hasn't been hit yet there has already been too much death and destruction due to storms.

[Andrew92]

What concerns me greatly is all three of those periods have something else in common. That something is only a couple years later came a horrendously busy season for the United States. 1930-31 was not long followed by 1933; 1981-82 was not long followed by 1985; and 2000-01 was not long followed by 2004 and 2005.

Of course, 2000-01 was followed by two busy seasons for the US, so maybe there's something to the notion that this period is sort of a "compensation" for 2005, while 2004 was the intended season right after 2000-01. Plus, you add in another year with three hurricanes for the US in 2008, and that could be the case too.

Still, if nothing makes landfall in the US before this year is up as a hurricane, I'm concerned about another busy season in a couple years again. On a side note while I'm on that topic, I can say upfront that there already several names on next year's list that have that "sound" of a nasty strike for the US. It doesn't mean anything of course, but I have a bad feeling about one of the next couple seasons (leaning towards next year though for some reason).

I mean, I know this might sound a little callous, but the season following one with no US hurricane landfalls, I actually kind of root for a minimal one to make landfall in our country (causing little to no damage, and of course no fatalities). If anything, it's to avoid seeing if there's a reason behind it or if it's just coincidence.

-Andrew92

[StormClouds63]

No major hurricane since Wilma (2005/category 3).
No hurricane since Ike (2008/category 2).

Didn't we go from Bret (1999) til' Lili (2002) w/o U.S. landfall?

[Ntxw]

We've been blessed unlike other places, and hopefully that will continue for a long time to come. Just to show it takes a lot more than warm bath water to guarantee danger.

[jconsor]

There us another period of >2 years without a US hurricane landfall that you missed:

1862-1864

According to NOAA archives dating back to the 1800's there has been only three times that no hurricanes made landfall on the CONUS for two consecutive years. Those consecutive years are 1930 & 1931, 1981 & 1982, 2000 & 2001.
This begs the question will 2009 & 2010 be added to this list? This data also makes a statement that odds are the CONUS will encounter a landfall hurricane this year.

Posted for discussion.

[somethingfunny]

No major hurricane since Wilma (2005/category 3).
No hurricane since Ike (2008/category 2).

Didn't we go from Bret (1999) til' Lili (2002) w/o U.S. landfall?

Irene '99 to Lili '02, yeah. We've still got a year to go before beating that record.

Bret '99 to Charley '04 was the no-major streak. We've already gone longer than that. Though it's really difficult to think of Ike as not being a major huricane hit.

[HurrMark]

If we go through the rest of the season without a major hurricane making landfall, which is getting pretty likely at this point, it will be the longest stretch since 1909-1915 without a major hurricane making landfall in the US. I don't want to belittle those who were impacted by Gustav, Ike, and other storms in the US since then, and those impacted throughout the world by significant storms, but given the number of storms that formed during this time, and given the intensity of some of them, this has been an incredibly lucky stretch.