ATL: Disturbed Weather in Central Atlantic - Code Yellow

[Shuriken]

IMO the quickly-developing (no Invest or even Pouch yet) low upstream of 97L is the one to be worried about for Otto:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Moved the thread from Active Storms/invests forum as it is not a invest right now.

[abajan]

Looks like a rather persistent area of convection.

[OURAGAN]

it's a 1009 mb low at 9N 41w.

[abajan]

Our next invest?



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[cycloneye]

8 AM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.
...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 7N18W 10N27W 8N35W TO A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 32W-48W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-20W.


$$
PAW

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

731
ABNT20 KNHC 031744
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[abajan]

Still at 10% and conditions forecast to become unfavorable:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[abajan]

No real change in latest TWO:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI