Will the WGOM have any more tropical threats this season?

[hurricaneCW]

Those in the northeast probably have a better chance at a tropical threat than the WGOM does this time of the year, which is saying a lot.

[Ptarmigan]

There is evidence prior to 1851 that WGOM has been affected by tropical systems. Very rare.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

Look under
Hurricanes of the Sixteenth Century (pg. 12)
Hurricanes of the Early Nineteenth Century (pg.13)
Racer's Storm of 1837
A Hurricane Hit Galveston On November 5th, 1839

There is evidence that Galveston has been affected by tropical cyclones in November.

[South Texas Storms]

That is a good link Ptarmigan. Thanks! It still could happen, the chances just are not very high at all.

[Ptarmigan]

That is a good link Ptarmigan. Thanks! It still could happen, the chances just are not very high at all.

Your welcome. It can happen, but it is very rare. None were recorded in HURDAT from 1851 to now.

There is evidence that Galveston has been affected by tropical cyclones in November. Going back to 1527 to 2010, which is 483 years. I looked at storms that hit after October and later. Here is what I found. It is based on documented tropical cyclones that made landfall on Texas.

November 1527
November 1590-Possible landfall
October 21, 1631 Hurricane
October 2-6th, 1837 Racer’s Storm
November 5, 1839 Galveston Hurricane
October 5, 1842
October 17, 1848 Hurricane
October 2-3, 1867
October 12th, 1880 Tropical Storm
October 12, 1886 Hurricane #10
October 6, 1895 Tropical Storm #4
October 16, 1912 Hurricane #6
October 17, 1938 Tropical Storm #5
October 4, 1949 Hurricane #10
October 15, 1989 Jerry

15 Storms hit Texas in October and November.

Overall Probability
Every 32.2 years

October
Every 40.25 years

November
Every 161 years

Of course nature does not care for probability.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah very true. wow thats a very low probability. once every 40 years and then once every 160 years. i wouldnt bet on it happening this year

[Ptarmigan]

yeah very true. wow thats a very low probability. once every 40 years and then once every 160 years. i wouldnt bet on it happening this year

That is like once in a life time. Not a bad thing either.