18/0Z GFS...Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio

[Scott_inVA]

...A nation turns its lonely eyes to you (Ooo ooo ooo).

sorry...was listening to the Yankees game today

Anyway, that's tonight's theme. where have they gone???

0Z GFS blows the first two waves away, now nothing west of 60 :o
I ain't buying the flip on wave 1. Wave 2 hasn't happened and I have no idea.

Until it figures out placement of the trof/ridge, this is the way things go.
This is also proof of the folly in plotting MR-LR runs

And to think Sat it was off Nags Head.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

[JetMaxx]

That's why I don't put much stock in model data beyond 3 or 4 days....especially when it involves the tropics.

Labor Day weekend could indeed be a hurricane free weekend west of 60W -- or something no model even had an inkling of tonight could create hurricane havoc for millions of Americans.

It's almost late August, the oceans are very warm...conditions aloft don't appear to be very hostile -- so I advise all coastal residents to remain vigilant. The disturbance that produced hurricane Camille in 1969 came all the way from Dakar to southwest of Jamaica as a nothing more than a tropical wave....then it suddenly exploded into a category 5 hurricane in less than 48 hours. I know no models forecast such an explosive event in 1969....and have my doubts they would today...at least beyond 72-96 hours (and no way at 10+ days).

Just my .02 cents worth...

[ameriwx2003]

Perry agree and the GFS has not fliping back and forth with no real run to run consistency. Its interesting to note at the 84 HR mark the ETA has a closed low E/NE of the Northern Islands. This is going to be an interesting week ahead I think:):)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[JetMaxx]

I think it's going to be a very interesting next couple of months Mike...

Combine the warmth I see in the tropical oceans with the fact there hasn't been a hurricane in the EPAC yet -- to me that spells big trouble with a capitol T. I'll go on record as stating I believe we'll witness a "super-cane" between now and late October....a cat-5 monster somewhere in the Atlantic Basin. When the EPAC is this docile, the energy's going to explode somewhere, and I believe it's the Atlantic's turn (there were 2 cat-5's in the EPAC in 2002).

The last cat-5 in the Atlantic Basin was Mitch in 1998...so it's about time. I won't be surprised to see a hurricane of the magnitude of Mitch or Camille; or perhaps even Gilbert before all is said and done this hurricane season.

[ameriwx2003]

Perry, yes you are right about its going to be a interesting couple of months.Yes, besides EPAC being rather quiet , the wave train is getting active, the active phase of the MJO will be a factor in the Atlantic soon and I read today Joe B said the NOA is heading negative. So looks like the start of some active times are about to happen. :) I do get the sense also that something major is going to form also

[Steve H.]

With the EPAC quiet, its a good sign that the atlantic will kick up, particularly with the conditions favorable as you guys mentioned. I agree a whopper can get produced in conditions like this. Of note, and if my memory serves me well, it was the NOGAPS that caught onto Mitch a week before he happened. I remember the NCEP tropical desk getting frustrated after a week saying that if the models are insisting, then it must be true! and two days later he came off SAmerica just where it said it would.