Take a look at the latest runs of GFS (omminous atlantic)

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_108l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132l.gif

If that pans out it will be an active next 2 weeks as this and other models are jumping on the CV bandwagon but time will tell if all of this will pan out. This run has the wave now at the east atlantic developing and in a position just east of the islands but again time will tell in reallity what will happen.

[Vortex]

Cyclone we are now entering the most dangerous part of the season. Most models are picking up on several Cape Verde storms. The models will go back and forth until we get closer but I think Fabian needs to be watched closely especially for you in the islands. It's much to early to declare this a fish storm especially since GFS often has a right bias. Nogaps actually brings it right through the central antilles just not as strong. Once the system gets west of 45w I think development will begin.

[cycloneye]

Well hopefully if all of those systems are going to be storms and canes they better be fish because we dont want a disaster to happen in the islands nor anywhere in the basin.But we have to be prepared for what mother nature has instore this rest of the season and hoping for the best.

[Stormsfury]

What's frightening to me, and also Vortex pointed one bias out of the GFS .. a right bias. It also has other biases (way too cold in winter, and has a tendency to strength the PV prematurely) ... in other words loves to build troughs over the Eastern U.S. The GFS has had the overall depiction that the CV season is about to get into swing and has been consistent with this for a week now.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif

This is the 18z run and shows a consistent trend and look at that system in the middle that is a tropical storm east of the islands.

[wx247]

Goodness, goodness, goodness... a lot to keep our eyes on, eh?

[Colin]

This is what we're here for!!