Atlantic Discussion

[Tip]

This mornings global models are all basically latched onto the low about 250 miles from Cape Verde. The AVN brings this wave to tropical storm strength as it is nearing the northern end of the Windward Islands. This is a northward shift in track from yesterday. The AVN is also very aggressive with the wave behind that is set to come off Africa developing it into a tropical storm shortly after leaving Africa - seems the lid is coming off the Atlantic. The UKMET also develops the first low to a tropical storm, but even has a more northerly component to the track. It seems both models are sensing a weakness in the Azores/Bermuda Ridge about mid-week that will allow the storm to have a more northerly trend. The second wave is progged to develop at about 54 hours from 0Z 8-16 on the AVN.

http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/cyclonephase ... index.html

[Tip]

GFS at 06Z now is predicting no impact from either the current low off Africa or the second wave that will also turn north before CONUS. Of course GFS is notoriously bad this far out. We'll have to see. If this scenario were to occur, get the surfboards out on the NJ coast around Labor Day lol.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384s.gif

[Scott_inVA]

GFS at 06Z now is predicting no impact from either the current low off Africa or the second wave that will also turn north before CONUS. Of course GFS is notoriously bad this far out. We'll have to see. If this scenario were to occur, get the surfboards out on the NJ coast around Labor Day lol.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384s.gif

GFS continues to develop trofs along/east of the East Coast. Nothing new with that

Were that to verify, it would likely be a double fish fry. Given the GFS has been trof happy over the W Atl, it's wait and see for me.

Both waves on the web site:

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

[cycloneye]

But how GFS can show that something that has not emerged africa yet can be a fish? As Scott said a friend of troughs and that may be the cause but it is well ahead to say if a trough will be in place by the end of august.

[Tip]

Basically, your right Cycloneye global models have a hard time with cyclogenisis and intensity. However, if you can get some model consensus on the overall synoptic pattern (globals are better at that) any long tracker that's out there should be influenced by the western extent of the subtropical ridge/east coast trough. The east coast has be troughy all summer.

To give a fair and balanced opinion the Euro model seems to be weakening the subtropical ridge at about 7- 10 days also.

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif


Scot lol "double fish fry"

[Scott_inVA]

But how GFS can show that something that has not emerged africa yet can be a fish? As Scott said a friend of troughs and that may be the cause but it is well ahead to say if a trough will be in place by the end of august.

If GFS was alone it would be easy to dismiss. But it's one of several to progg two waves developing.

Looking at what the GFS is doing in mid and upper levels, it keeps the Ridge to the east, develops a ridge over eastern CONUS so there's a trof inbetween. If true, double fish fillet. This is a pattern the GFS has honked seemingly for months over here...but placed trofs too far east. DT had an excellent post on why the GFS does this over at pbi...I should have saved

Think the thing to take away from this is the pattern and not the track(s). Models easily have a 350 mile error at 120 hours this is nearly three times as far out. Trend, not track. That's the deal for now

Scott

[OtherHD]

I am looking at the wave to the SW of Cape Verde and it's not looking too hot. I don't think it will develop but the other waves behind it have a chance since the sir won't be as dry.