CSU (Aug 18-31) Bi weekly forecasts Above Average ACE

[cycloneye]

This is the second forecast released by the Colorado State University folks Phil Klotzbach / Dr Gray for the period between August 18-31. They busted the first forecast from August 4-17 as they say why that occured. Lets see how the next period is in terms of having plenty of ACE units.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 8_2010.pdf

[clfenwi]

Right now they are 0 for 1, with the first forecast (for above average activity) being a double bust. Their explanation:

The primary reasons why we believe activity was reduced
during the two-week period were due to dry mid levels in the atmosphere and increased
vertical stability (Figures A and B). This dryness was not expected. Also, several
upper-level cold lows intruded into the tropics during the period, imparting upper-level
westerly shear and hindering storm formation.

As cycloneye notes, this forecast is also for above average activity. Average is 14.5 units, so the forecast is for 19 or more units. Primary factor is the activity predicted by global forecast models.

[KWT]

One decent CV system would easily take us above average, perhaps by quite some way. Most of the models would suggest over 25 units.

[supercane]

ACE with Danielle and Earl already 24 kt^2, thus meeting the forecast expectation of >19 kt^2 of ACE.