Why has the Northwestern Pacific been so inactive?

[Ptarmigan]

Why has the Northwestern Pacific been so inactive?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weathe ... trynum=396

It has little to do with El Nino and La Nina. It does influence it some degree. It has to do with where the Pacific Warm Pool goes.

[Macrocane]

Thanks for that Ptarmigan, from what I understood, La Niña in fact has something to do but it's not the only cause. Someone mentioned in another thread that the monsoonal flow has not been normal and that has contributed with the inactivity.

[KWT]

It certainly makes sense, the MJO progression is an issue as well, its been rather unfavourable the whole time over the WPAC and is only recently trying to shift again...it is interestingly a very close match to 1998, which had a very slow start.

[Aslkahuna]

Historically, post Niño seasons in WPAC have started out slow and picked up late in July and August. JTWC had a discussion of this in their ATCR some years ago where they discussed the effects of the evolution of the ENSO upon activity in the Western Pacific.

Steve