Low pressure developing near the Bahamas

[AJC3]

I figured that I would start a separate thread on this.

All of the guidance that I have looked at (ECM, CMC, UKM, GFS, NAM, NGP) show a fairly decent weakness in the 500 MB height field developing between 36 and 72 hours roughly from 25-30N and 69-76W. All of the models also show at least weak low pressure forming on the east side of this area, along the stalled out frontal boundary currently in the vicinity. A pretty significant deep layer ridge forms over the eastern CONUS by MON-TUE.

Discuss away, peeps!

[KWT]

Yeah though it seems like it'll probably develop in much the same way as 95L is trying right now, in a non-tropical fashion at first...still you never quite know with these sorts of systems.

[SFLcane]

AJC3 whats your current thinking about the disturbed weather down in the SW caribbean sea? Ive noticed pressures have lowered a tad down there. Do you foresee anything that would tend to bring any development across the bahamas vicinity closs to the southeast coast.

[AJC3]

AJC3 whats your current thinking about the disturbed weather down in the SW caribbean sea? Ive noticed pressures have lowered a tad down there. Do you foresee anything that would tend to bring any development across the bahamas vicinity closs to the southeast coast.

To answer your second question, it's possible. It all depends on where the surface trough/low takes shape, and how strong and long lasting the ridge that builds over the eastern CONUS early next week will be. It looks pretty stout by Tuesday. It's certainly something that I'm sure many folks will be keeping an eye on over the next several days.

As far as the Caribbean goes, it's interesting that the ECM is advertising a scenario that is somewhat similar to what occurred with Alex.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This seems to be the same system as my TS in NYC thread. Exept the CMC starts it near PR.

[cycloneye]

One of the models that develops this area is NOGAPS. Here is the 18z run.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The GFS and NGP runs show a weaker, SE coast TD or TS.

[dizzyfish]

Got a mention from our local NWS this morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
254 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN HOW MUCH DRY AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE THE DRIEST SOLUTIONS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE NAM DROPPING TO JUST OVER AN INCH BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM ALSO DEVELOPS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS ON MONDAY AND MOVES IT SLOWLY
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PULLING THE
DRY AIR SO FAR SOUTH AND IS THEREFORE CONSIDERED AN UNLIKELY
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MORE DRY AIR IN THAN THE GFS...BUT
EVEN THE GFS BRINGS SOME DRYING MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB.

[Weatherfreak000]

Incredibly convectively active Atlantic. Early July?

[OuterBanker]

I think that the super high over us now is going to prevent anything from happening. Too much wonderful dry air. Causing some of the best weather possible here now. It's going to leave us monday and we will return to hot an humid. But it should drive south of us enough to prevent any Atlantic development. Beside we have enough to watch in the Gulf right now.

[CourierPR]

I think that the super high over us now is going to prevent anything from happening. Too much wonderful dry air. Causing some of the best weather possible here now. It's going to leave us monday and we will return to hot an humid. But it should drive south of us enough to prevent any Atlantic development. Beside we have enough to watch in the Gulf right now.

If that high drops south it would only keep the system from heading north, but it could still develop.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree Weatherfreak000, the amount of convection out there right now is insane.......

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM TWO.10%

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

The fact the system is progged to slow right down is rather interesting, if shear conditions do ease off for long enough then the system could well slowly try and develop.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I got question. WIll this one go OTS? or moight it try to jump up the coast.

[HURAKAN]

850
ABNT20 KNHC 050539
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Cyclone1]

NHC has lost interest.

[CrazyC83]

Classic POOF!

[rockyman]

Small area of vorticity east of Miami...confirmed by visible satellite: