Tropical wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

I still think the southern side looks to be the area to watch, the northern section has got good convection but it seems to be the convection is plusing ever northwards.

The southern wave may well need to be watched further in the Caribbean IMO.

[cycloneye]

051154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 21N58W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
MARTINIQUE TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N63W MOVING NW
10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION AND THE TILT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
FROM 20N56W TO 22N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

The latest on radar.

[Weatherfreak000]

The wave I believe to be future 97L will be in the W. Caribbean when 96L moves out.

[rockyman]

Shear is really decreasing across the eastern Caribbean:

[lonelymike]

Do any models really develop this wave?