Will the oil slick shut down the GOM this season?

[Jagno]

Hurricanehunter; That's exactly what we are doing at this time. Ironically, the day the well blew i'd just finished replacing the last fence after rebuilding the home I lost in Rita. I'm going room by room, closet by closet and carefully condensing, organizing, inventorying and packing up everything that I won't be needing or using in the next 3 months or longer. The rest is going to the Salvation Army. I've acquired a storage facility well north of here to use for my furniture and storage should/when the need arise. At least this time I'll have what is needed to start over elsewhere. I can't keep more than we can personally haul in our cargo trailer, 5th wheel, utility trailer, Ford F250, Toyota Tacoma, 4-runner and 2-travel trailers. There will be no insurance to assist anyone in replacing their homes or its' contents therefore people need to take responsibility now. With or without a major hurricane this oil/gas/815,000 gallons of chemical toxins are infiltrating the coastal marshes and inlets. Our water sources are in jeapordy of contamination. Today BP admits that it will probably be August before this well can be possibly stopped. We don't have the luxery of "time" when you are dealing with MILLIONS of gallons of this stuff spewing.

HouTXmetro; This is part of the "top kill" method that they were planning on implementing on Wednesday however they're already backtracking and saying that preliminary tests indicate that the heat near the surface would harden the concrete prematurely thus preventing it from being poured effectively down into the well head. I'm no expert but the constant delays and backtracking isn't giving me a warm feeling of much confidence that this method will work.

[brunota2003]

Seeing how this year will be a neutral year at least (with a very high possibly of a la nina), Florida and Texas risk the greatest chance of being hit this season, with that study I did. Note that the study measured direct landfalls of any tropical cyclone, but the effects can affect many more states. Just like in the past when storms hit one area, but still caused a surge elsewhere. This year we could potentially see a storm that surpasses Katrina's damage toll moneywise, especially once all the oil damage is factored in (from any storm surge).

Another thing is, how is a tropical cyclone going to react right before landfall when it moves over the oil slick? What will the oil that is subsurface do? Many questions that we just simply do not have the answers to.

[Dionne]

The original topic thread.....will the slick shut down GoM?

My answer is now YES.

How much is the next question.

Oil Well (oh well).

[Duddy]

The concrete method won't work. I believe the warmth of the water will cause the concrete to start to harden before it can reach the well. It would work fine if it was down 200-300 feet but were talking a mile down.

[tailgater]

Seas have been pretty calm lately and offshore a good bit, but that's not gonna last much longer IMHO. A little bump in the onshore wave action, because of a weak disturbance in the western gulf, forecast to move ENE to the Fla panhandle will make clean up efforts a little tougher. Let's hope this next method (top hat)works!

NAM and GFS showing something similar.

[StrongWind]

Thought I'd give it a shot since there are so many people here good at interpreting sat. photos.

This is labeled on a forum as oil coming around FL and up the East coast. I think it's clouds. What say you all?

[jinftl]

NOAA press release highlights:


What will happen to a hurricane that runs through
this oil slick?

• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the
ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the
current size of the spill.
• If the slick remains small in comparison to a
typical hurricane’s general environment and size,
the anticipated impact on the hurricane would
be minimal.
• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either
the intensity or the track of a fully developed
tropical storm or hurricane.
• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm
surge or near-shore wave heights.


What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in
the Gulf?

• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather”
the oil which can help accelerate the
biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider
area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the
oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the
track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline
and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris
resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated
by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but
also from other oil releases that may occur during
the storm.
• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise.
Thus, in VERY GENERAL TERMS:
o A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick
could drive oil to the coast.
o A hurricane passing to the east of the slick
could drive the oil away from the coast.
o However, the details of the evolution of the
storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the
forward motion and the intensity are all
unknowns at this point and may alter this
general statement.


Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from
developing in the Gulf?

• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical
storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water
(such as for a developing tropical depression or
disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress
evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not
allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there
would be less moisture available to fuel the
hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source,
the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds,
such as those found in approaching tropical
storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as
is the case with the current slick (except in very
limited areas near the well) would likely break into
pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper
layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks,
however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the
storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in
touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce
any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a
significant impact on the hurricane.

http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com ... 572167.pdf

[vbhoutex]

Thought I'd give it a shot since there are so many people here good at interpreting sat. photos.

This is labeled on a forum as oil coming around FL and up the East coast. I think it's clouds. What say you all?

I don't claim to be a great interpreter of sat pics, but I can tell you that if that was happening it would be all over the media. someone is trying to create a stir about something that hasn't happened yet, imo.

[mpic]

What danger exists involving the methane gas coming off the oil in the water with regard to lightning possibly causing explosions? Further yet, could the methane gas be picked up and sparks from electrical devices set it off in any storm, hurricane or not, coming ashore? Will it even be safe for us to just breathe?

[MomH]

I am writing a term paper for a college class on the oil spill. Part of my research turned up this article and it is scary.

Basically, the Valdez spill was only 11 million gallons compared to the 125 million so far in the gulf. Scary part--20 years after the Valdez spill, holes dug on the coast still fill up with oil. Add to that, numerous species have not rebounded.

We may be facing more than a few months of clean up.

Here's the article site for those interested.

http://www.evostc.state.ak.us/recovery/lingeringoil.cfm