UK Met Seasonal Forecast for the Atlantic Basin

[vortex100]

For those interested, the Brits have issued their tropical weather forecast for the season. By the way, they have done a much better job than NOAA and Dr. Gray over the past decade forecasting the number of storms expected.

Issued 17 June 2010

The most likely number of tropical storms predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the July to November period is 20, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 13 to 27. This represents above-normal activity relative to the 1990–2005 long-term average of 12.4.

An ACE index of 204 is predicted as the most likely value, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 90 to 319 — which is above normal relative to the 1990–2005 average of 131.

(The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is a measure of the collective intensity and duration of all tropical storms over the season and thus includes storm lifetimes and intensities as well as total numbers over the season. The long term average index is 131.)

You can read a complete report at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/northatlantic.html

[cycloneye]

I moved the thread to Talking Tropics forum as Active Storms forum is only for active invests and Tropical Cyclones.