A Question on Early Development

[StarmanHDB]

As I've said before, I am far from being a meteorologist, but I've always had a very strong interest in the big storms so I am very glad to have discovered this site. What a great place to learn!

That said, at what stage in the evolution of a tropical wave can one tell if it's going to amount to anything? For example, there is currently a slow spinning "puff" parked north-northeast off of the coast of the DR. I've watched it for the past couple of hours and, although it looks interesting, I know that chances of it developing into anything this early in the season are slim and none, but for future reference, what are the factors one should look for in early development?

[JonathanBelles]

A person can never be 100% sure that a wave will develop until it already has. When and only when a tropical depression is declared can a person be sure that it will develop since it already has.

[wxman57]

One big clue here would be to look a the current (and projected) wind shear over the system. The system currently is experiencing at least 20-30 kts of wind shear ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. And that shear is not forecast to decrease to acceptable levels for development in the near term. So its chances of development are remote:



What we look for when judging development potential is a favorable environment (low shear, warm water) and persistent strong convection. Perhaps evidence of rotation aloft to start with. A disturbance located in a favorable environment with persistent heavy convection may have a good chance of developing.