TSR Forecast (June update) 18/10/4

[clfenwi]

"TSR raises its forecast and predicts the 2010 hurricane season will be
active with basin activity 80% above the 1950-2009 long-term average.
This is the highest forecast ever issued by TSR at this lead time."

June Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2010 - Tropical Storm Risk

[jasons2k]

Weren't they the last holdout for an average or below-average season? If that is true and with them revising their numbers...that would mean above-average predictions issued by all the major "seasonal" forecasters.

[wxman57]

"TSR raises its forecast and predicts the 2010 hurricane season will be
active with basin activity 80% above the 1950-2009 long-term average.
This is the highest forecast ever issued by TSR at this lead time."

June Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2010 - Tropical Storm Risk

No big surprise, everyone is on the same page this year except for Weather Research Center's forecast of only 8 named storms based on their solar cycle theory.

[KWT]

Which is quite clearly going to bust given even 2009 got more then 8NS!

But ya we are generally seeing most predictions now between 16-18NS.

[jasons2k]

No big surprise, everyone is on the same page this year except for Weather Research Center's forecast of only 8 named storms based on their solar cycle theory.

Ahh, I stand corrected -- that was the "holdout" I was thinking of.

Yeah, something tells me they will go bust with that one.

[JTD]

Being at 20/11/6 myself, this is a bit hypocritical but I can't help wondering if these forecasts are all too high. It just seems like a good rule is to expect the least climactic stalest status quo outcome. It seems like whenever a gloomy scenario is painted, the reverse tends to happen or it is never as bad as predicted. 2005 is interesting in this sense in that no one predicted it coming ahead of time. I wonder if the next time we see a 2005, no one will have predicted it.

Just something to think about. Hopefully, we do see 8 NS or less. The United States absolutely CANNOT absorb any major hurricane strike right now.

Neither can Haiti, etc.

That said, I fully expect 15 NS or more but I wouldn't be surprised to see less or more than 25. Expect the unexpected.

[KWT]

As much as it'd be nice to see a season as low as 8 storms its quite obviously not to happen, there are quite a few factors that scream hyperactive. We've just gotta hope that most of the storms, at least the bigger ones decide to fish instead of tracking towards the Caribbean/US.