something in the sw carribean

[punkyg]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

This area may have some vorticity with and shear isn't all that bad.
So my question is does this disturbance have a chance, or will it continue into the eastern pacific.

[Ivanhater]

Has model support

18z nam



12z Nogaps

[brunota2003]

Are y'all talking about the convection near Panama, or ex-TS Agatha (now 91L) near the Yucatan?

[KWT]

Not much though to be fair, and even then the models barely have anything present. Until it gets some more model support I'm not going to get to excited, esp given there is usually some sort of convection down there at this time of the year.

[gatorcane]

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I give this just about no chance of development in the Caribbean. For one thing the NAM is notoriously awful at predicting cyclogenesis. Second, I don't see any reason for a significant low pressure system to even form in the SW Caribbean that would even have a chance at development.

If it does develop, I would say it would be in the Eastern Pacific, similar to what the GFS hints at. Even then, development chances in the EPAC are low as well without support from multiple models.

[lonelymike]

Has model support

18z nam



12z Nogaps

If it was the Euro or even the "gasp" GFS I might get excited. But the Nam!!!! That's like hitting on the ugly girl at the Floribama at 4 in the morning after 15 martini's

[Ivanhater]

As much of a tragedy that is this is pretty much there is to talk about as far as tropical weather stands