Tropical Storm AGATHA personal forcasts

[Hurricane Andrew]

A personal forcast tread for 90E. i will post mine ASAP.

[KWT]

I'll have a brief little punt:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Models are getting suggestive for development with this region of convection. I'm fully expecting to see Agatha out of this though how strong it becomes depends on exactly where the LLC develops in relation to land. Convergence is stronger closer to the coast so we may end up yet seeing any LLC develop not far from the coast, that seems to be what the 12z ECM does. I'm not sure I can make that call right now but I suspect any LLC will develop and organise quite quickly in the next 12-24hrs.

That being said for now I'll assume that there will be enough distance from land for development. Convergence looks decent enough and is aiding deep convection as is upper divergence. Thereforer as long as it can get far enough away from land I see no reason why this system can't strengthen into a TS. Small upper high aloft should continue to provide decent conditions aloft for a little while yet through at least 72hrs.

Track seems fairly easy for now, should move WNW over the next 48-72hrs before an upper level weakness that also ejects 90L helps to lift the whole area NE towards Mexico.

My personal max intensity for this one will be 65mph...

[Hurricane Andrew]

I like your forcast. I ave to agree with everything but the intensity. I will start posting mine in a minute.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EYE ON THE SKY TROPICAL UPDATE
Part 1
May 25, 2010

DISCUSSION
Invest 90L)90L is loosing its convection and strength as it speeds towrds the coast. If it hurries it might reach STD strength. Rip currents are still a danger for the coast. This system has a 5% chance of developing.

Invest 90E)A new invest has developed in Epacific. The storm is organizing rapidly. It has the potental to become TD by tonight or tommorow, and a TS by tommorow night. It will slowly move to the WNW, then to te NE. This storm has the chance to become a minor hurricane before making landfall. It may cross over to the ATL. and redevelop as "alex". The carribean should monitar this closely.


"if givin a name, it would be "agatha"


Part 2 up next.

[KWT]

I like your forcast. I ave to agree with everything but the intensity. I will start posting mine in a minute.

FWIW I wouldn't rule out it becoming stronger but I'm not confident enough yet with regards to where the LLC places itself to be able to go higher, esp if the LLC develops where the best region for instablity is, which is currently close to the coast.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Part 2
Chances of Strength
(invest 90E)
TD
24 hours-80%
48 hours-90%
72 hours-95%>
1 week-99%>

TS
24 hours-50%
48 hours-75%
72 hours-90%
1 week-95%>

Hurricane(1,2)
24 hours-X
48 hours-5%
72 hours-45%
1 week-50%

Effects...
EPA mexican coastline
WIll be issued when storm develops

Next update tommorow 5PM or wen storm develops.

[Chacor]

Out of interest, are those numbers based on anything in particular, or just a random shot?

[Hurricane Andrew]

anyone else?


NOTICE:my next forcast will be out May 27 9:30 PM or May 28 10:00AM

[tailgater]

I don't have a forecast, but I know I don't want anything in the gulf, not even a lopsided TD


Luckly at 300 hrs out we can be pretty sure it won't happen.