JB's latest predictitons. From the free site (ok to post)

[OuterBanker]

Never seen him so concerned this early.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/740517 ... mation.asp

[KWT]

Very interesting, the similarities between the Atlantic profile in 98, 05 and this year is quite impressive I have to admit, all three years had that same cooler temps above say 25-30N and warmer waters to the south.

[Blown Away]

JB says when the SST profile is spread out the storm tracks are not concentrated, like in 2007. In 2005 the SST profile was more concentrated and more storms moved in the general area of the Caribbean and CONUS. Very ominous SST profile for the 2010 season. Many factors leading towards an active season and a SST profile, per JB, that could send systems towards landfalls. He also says rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina tends to bring the tracks more southerly. That was an interesting clip from JB.

[KWT]

Also he said he thinks that the cold waters in the gulf will be gone by the start of the season and back upto average and possibly well above near the loop current and into the Caribbean...once again not a great thing!

Certainly going to be an interesting season, can't imagine there will be too many more in this warm phase of the Atlantic that has as much risk as this one is showing right now...

[Blown Away]

Also he said he thinks that the cold waters in the gulf will be gone by the start of the season and back upto average and possibly well above near the loop current and into the Caribbean...once again not a great thing!

Certainly going to be an interesting season, can't imagine there will be too many more in this warm phase of the Atlantic that has as much risk as this one is showing right now...

Yeah that was cool, with all that really cold water in the GOM you can clearly see the Loop Current getting ready to fire up. No doubt the GOM can heat up in a hurry. That also applies to the Gulfstream off SFL, no doubt that will boiling by August.

[RL3AO]

Plus all that cold water is near the surface. In his severe weather outlook, he says a ridge should take over for the trough in the SE US. That will let the GOM warm up really quick.

[jinftl]

Having watched the clip...I don't see much hyping for effect going on....it's not like JB was saying the 'sky is falling' or that this season will be 2005 revisited....nothing at all that dramatic. It was an interesting analysis....he pointed out alot of info that wasn't, in my opinion, directing folks to the conclusion that we are 'in trouble'.

I will say, that if the Loop Current is alive and kicking....as shown by some localized warmer than normal sst in that region of the Gulf....when the Gulf overall is currently experiencing surface cooling due to the past winter (which will quickly change as JB pointed out)....that is very telliing.

His video post was not alarmist, it was informative. Go JB!

[hurricanetrack]

I agree - very well done video and his work as of late as a whole. He really did spot that El Nino coming around this time last year (earlier actually) and was very bearish on the 2009 hurricane season- saying most of the Atlantic would be dominated by dry, sinking air- it was. It's funny how unless you work for a university or the government, you're not taken very seriously in matters such as these. Wonder why that is? The guy is obviously very intelligent, makes logical conclusions based on real data. We'll see what happens- looks like a lot of aspects of the season point to it being very active.

[KWT]

Plus all that cold water is near the surface. In his severe weather outlook, he says a ridge should take over for the trough in the SE US. That will let the GOM warm up really quick.

If that happens then we will indeed see some pretty sharp warming of the Gulf back towards average in no time at all!