Possible Positive PDO & 2010 Season

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blp
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Possible Positive PDO & 2010 Season

#1 Postby blp » Wed Feb 24, 2010 10:37 pm

Well I am hoping for some warmer weather and I am making my way back onto the board. I am looking forward to the season poll. I am starting to think about my poll numbers for this year and I found this blog on Wunderground that has some interesting information about the Positive PDO possibly making a comeback this year. I remember Wxman57 writing in 2004 to watch out for the Positive PDO and how it in conjunction with the active cycle is like a switch that enhances activity. I actually found his link and I attached it below. If the predictions are correct we could be seeing a setup with a Positive PDO, Negative NAO and the current era of warmer SST's that we have not seen in decades. Of course, all of this is speculation at this point but the blog below does present some interesting information to support the possibility of this happening by analyzing the analogs. I wanted to know what you guys think about this possibility. Thanks

Blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32 ... trynum=263

Wxman57 Link:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/
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Re: Possible Positive PDO & 2010 Season

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 24, 2010 10:58 pm

I will only say that all of the above factors that you mentioned and I add,the decaying El Nino will make for a very interesting 2010 season.I will talk a bit more after I post my numbers in the storm2k poll.
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#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Feb 25, 2010 12:50 pm

Something resembling 1998 perhaps? Slow start but a significant pickup late?
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Re: Possible Positive PDO & 2010 Season

#4 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Feb 25, 2010 3:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:I will only say that all of the above factors that you mentioned and I add,the decaying El Nino will make for a very interesting 2010 season.I will talk a bit more after I post my numbers in the storm2k poll.



I will as well. After seeing some of the ECMWF data coming out, I will say that folks in the Islands may have to be very aware if that guidance verifies. :wink:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... _forecast/
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