What is your evaluation of the 2009 Atlantic season?

[x-y-no]

My pre-season guess (posted April 20) was 10/5/2. That's better than I've done in previous years.

[Macrocane]

Most of us predicted a near to slightly below normal season. The named storms and major hurricanes were pretty close to the consensus, but the hurricane number was lower than most predicted. Overall, it went pretty close to what was expected (so far).

As for 2010, from what I can see so far, I expect a slow start for sure. If El Nino stays all season, a slow season could be in store. But if it leaves us, then the fall could get interesting.

Actually, as somethingfunny said, the final numbers of the storm2k poll inidicated an above normal season.

[cycloneye]

If the 9/3/2 numbers stick until the 30th at midnight EST,two members will be very close to nail them.The poll will be back at Talking tropics forum on December 1rst for the members to see who were the close calls.

[somethingfunny]

If the 9/3/2 numbers stick until the 30th at midnight EST,two members will be very close to nail them.The poll will be back at Talking tropics forum on December 1rst for the members to see who were the close calls.

Given recent trends, shouldn't we wait until January 1st 2010 to declare a winner?

[cycloneye]

If the 9/3/2 numbers stick until the 30th at midnight EST,two members will be very close to nail them.The poll will be back at Talking tropics forum on December 1rst for the members to see who were the close calls.

Given recent trends, shouldn't we wait until January 1st 2010 to declare a winner?

Yes I know about the post season reports and there may be some changes but I always initially on December 1rst roll out any winners or close calls,If there are changes,then new winners or close calls will be announced.

[CrazyC83]

Some other thoughts:

* I don't see any names being retired, unless El Salvador believes (incorrectly) their flooding was caused by Ida (it was a Pacific invest that did it). So relax everyone, you'll all be back in 2015.

* As for 2010, it is hard to tell at this point and all dependant on El Nino and whether it weakens or not. If it sticks around and grows more intense, I am thinking 2010 will be a really slow season (and the Pacific will be insane resembling 1992 and 1997) with the shear fully entrenched in the Atlantic. If El Nino disappears in time, then I am thinking a near to slightly above normal season, although maybe fewer long-lived hurricanes - something like 2007.

My early 2010 predictions:

If El Nino grows - 6/2/1

If El Nino weakens - 12/5/2

[cycloneye]

Notable things that occured during the 2009 season:

Source=Colorado State University team,Dr Phil Klotzbach / Dr William Gray.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ov2009.pdf

A late-starting season. Ana did not form until August 15. This was the latest "A" storm of the season since Andrew formed in 1992 on August 17. However, the 2009 season exploded into a flurry of action August 15 - 16, when the Atlantic featured a rare triple threat of simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C--Ana, Bill, and Claudette. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1.

Nine named storms occurred during 2009. This is the fewest since 1997, when eight named storms formed.

27.25 named storm days occurred in 2009. This is the fewest named storm days since 1991, when only 24.25 named storm days were recorded.

Three hurricanes occurred in 2009. This is the fewest since 1997 when there were also three hurricanes.

Five named storms (Ana, Danny, Erika, Fred, and Henri) dissipated over the open ocean in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic this year. This is a fairly rare occurrence that typically only occurs in years such as this year that are characterized by high levels of tropospheric vertical wind shear.

11.25 hurricane days occurred in 2009. This is the fewest hurricane days since 2002 when 10.75 hurricane days were reported.

2 major hurricanes formed during the 2009 hurricane season. The last time that fewer than two major hurricanes occurred in a season was in 1997 when only one major hurricane (Erika) formed.

3.25 major hurricane days occurred in 2009. This is the fewest major hurricane days in a season since 2006 when only two major hurricane days were recorded.

The season accrued an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 50. The 1951 - 2005 average is 102.3, and the 2009 ACE was the lowest since 1997 (41) and the 16th lowest of the last 66 years since the aircraft reconnaissance era began in 1944.

No Category 5 hurricanes developed in 2009. This is the second consecutive year with no Category 5 hurricanes. The last time that two or more years occurred in a row with no Category 5 hurricanes was 1999-2002.

No named storms formed in June or July. The last time that no storm activity occurred in June or July was 2004 (Alex formed that year on August 1). This is the 18th year of the past 66 years with no storm formations in June or July.

August had above-average ACE activity. 29 ACE units were recorded during the month, which is approximately 125% of the 1950-2000 average.

58% of seasonal ACE was generated during the month of August. The last time that more than 58% of seasonal ACE was generated during the month of August was in 1942.

September was very quiet with only 11 ACE units generated during the month. This is the quietest September since 1994 when only 3 ACE units were recorded.

No ACE was generated between September 13 and October 4. The last time that this occurred was 1991. Prior to that, one has to go all the way back to 1925 to see no ACE generated during three of the most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season.

October was also very quiet with only 2 ACE units occurring. This is the quietest October since 1994 when no tropical cyclone activity occurred.

Only 13 ACE units occurred during the combined September-October period. This is the fewest ACE units during this two-month period since 1994 (3), and the fifth fewest since the aircraft reconnaissance era began in 1944.

Hurricane Bill generated 26 ACE units, or 52% of the seasonal total. The last time that one storm generated that much of the seasonal total was Erika in 1997 which generated 63% of the total ACE observed that year.

Hurricane Fred became the third storm on record to reach major hurricane status east of 35°W, although prior to 1972 when Dvorak satellite estimates from polar-orbiting satellite reconnaissance became routinely available, some storms may have been missed in the eastern part of the Atlantic basin.

Hurricane Ida became only the second hurricane to reach hurricane status in the Caribbean in November during an El Niño year (where El Niño is defined to be all years since 1950 where the October Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is 0.5ñC or greater). The only other storm to reach hurricane status in the Caribbean in November in an El Niño year was Martha in 1969.

Ida became the second latest tropical cyclone to make landfall along the Gulf Coast, trailing only Hurricane Kate in 1985 (which made landfall on November 21).

Only two tropical storms (Claudette and Ida) made U.S. landfall this year while no hurricanes made U.S. landfall. This is the first time since 2006 and the 13th time in the last 66 years where no hurricanes made U.S. landfall.

No hurricanes made landfall along the Florida Peninsula and East Coast. This marks the fourth year in a row with no hurricane landfalls along this portion of the U.S. coastline. The last time that we went four years between hurricane landfalls along the Florida Peninsula and East Coast was 1980-1983.

No major hurricanes made U.S. landfall this year. Following seven major hurricane landfalls in 2004-2005, the U.S. has not witnessed a major hurricane landfall in the past four years. The four consecutive years between 2000-2003 also experienced no major U.S. hurricane landfalls. Since 1995, the Atlantic basin has had 56 major hurricanes but only 10 (18%) have made U.S. landfall. The long-period average is that approximately 30% of major hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin make U.S. landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

what hurricane struck the SE USA in 1984?

Diana hit NC, which is part of the Mid Atlantic. That should read 1980-1984 as we went from David to Bob between hurricane landfalls

[AJC3]

what hurricane struck the SE USA in 1984?

Diana hit NC, which is part of the Mid Atlantic. That should read 1980-1984 as we went from David to Bob between hurricane landfalls

It all depends upon how you slice it. A-way-back when I was in school, NC was considered part of the southeastern U.S. and the middle Atlantic states only included NY, PA, NJ, MD and DE. Personally, whenever I reference the southeast or southeastern seaboard in an AFD, I also consider the it to include NC. YOMV, and in fact, a great number of references vary on which states are/are not included in the "Southeast" U.S.

[cycloneye]

I forgot to post the source at my post above about the notable things of the 2009 season but its there now.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

what hurricane struck the SE USA in 1984?

Diana hit NC, which is part of the Mid Atlantic. That should read 1980-1984 as we went from David to Bob between hurricane landfalls

I am afraid you have a very idiosyncratic definition of "MidAtlantic." If you Google the term "Mid Atlantic States", you will find maps that generally include New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware, and only sometimes Virginia and West Virginia. Almost no one seems to include North Carolina under that term.

[Ptarmigan]

My prediction for 2009 was way off, 13/6/3. I did come close with number of major hurricanes. I am not going to make any until March. 2009 season is largely average in terms of tropical storms and major hurricanes. Number of hurricanes is below average.