88 years ago today....Cat 3 inundates Tampa Bay

[jinftl]

On October 25, 1921, a Cat 3 hurricane (pressure at landfall = 952mb) made landfall at approximately 2:40 pm in the Tampa Bay area, specifically, at Tarpon Springs.

From the NWS Tampa Bay:

On October 25, 1921, Tampa Bay suffered the most destructive hurricane to hit the area since 1848. A storm surge estimated at 10.5 feet destroyed substantial portions of the sea wall along coastal locations. The storm surge inundated areas in Bayshore and Tarpon Springs. Many vessels, like the steamer “Favorite”, and the Thomas B. Garland were smashed against the docks by the waves. Powerful winds brought heavy damage to structures along the bay area, especially on Edgewater Park, the Hendry Knight Channel, and Palmetto Beach where many structures were reduced to rubble. Waves from the bay were almost breaking in the streets of Ybor City. The Citrus industry was hard hit by the cyclone which destroyed entire crop fields. There were eight confirmed fatalities, most of them by drowning as the storm surge inundated near shore locations.

Without the support of modern tools such as satellites, radars, computer graphics, and mathematical models, the forecast for such an event was extremely difficult as it was completely dependent on sparse marine and land observations. Most of the hurricane forecasts in those days were based on climatological data from previous hurricanes, which suggested that in general cyclones moving over the Gulf of Mexico had a tendency of passing well north of Tampa Bay.




Photo of rubble at Southern Steamship Company's Terminal in Tampa

[psyclone]

what an absolute nightmare. that woulda blown me off the map. that storm cut the pass that separates honeymoon and caladesi island, hence the name "hurricane pass". as scary as that storm path is it is worth remembering that this is the last big cane to directly strike tampa bay....we're edging closer to a century of good luck. no wonder everyone around here is complacent.

[Derek Ortt]

952 in the GOM as a cat 3 at that latitude in late October...

It was reanalyzed as a cat 3. However, the method used was to stick close to the standard pressure to wind relationship, which we know usually does not apply to the Gulf, especially this time of year

[wxman57]

Here's a run of the new SLOSH program showing INUNDATION values for a large Cat 2 or a little larger-than-average Cat 3 striking Tampa from the SW. The values on the map are projected water depths, NOT height above MSL as typically shown by SLOSH.

[CrazyC83]

952 in the GOM as a cat 3 at that latitude in late October...

It was reanalyzed as a cat 3. However, the method used was to stick close to the standard pressure to wind relationship, which we know usually does not apply to the Gulf, especially this time of year

Wilma had a pressure of 953mb with 110 kt winds in the Gulf though, and was quite large (although the winds weakened a bit despite the pressure deepening before landfall).

[Derek Ortt]

Wilma was a little farther south, however. The pressure to win relationship really breaks down as you move farther north

[mitchell]

Here's a run of the new SLOSH program showing INUNDATION values for a large Cat 2 or a little larger-than-average Cat 3 striking Tampa from the SW. The values on the map are projected water depths, NOT height above MSL as typically shown by SLOSH.

is that actual slosh output or an overview map? Those grid cells look HUGE...like at least a 1/4 - 1/2 square mile or so? Given (even for florida ) the many feet variation in ground elevation over such an area isnt it kind of spurious to give water depths to the 0.1 foot? I would think with widespread availability and low cost of Lidar data, that kind of map would be produced at a resolution more like 10 meters or less. Just curious, as someone doing inundation modelling myself, but not SLOSH work.

By the way, it would actually be more useful to have the water surface elevation output in MSL, so someone else with accurate, dense ground elevation data could produce accurate depth-of-flooding maps. Man...the Corp's budget for this stuff (SLOSH) is SO inadequate.

[Derek Ortt]

SLOSH used to produce the maps in terms of rise above MSL. That was deemed too confusing for the public