Herni the X

[tailgater]

A little play on words there. annnnyhow looks like the shear has lessened a good deal but the old circulation looks like a trough or wave this morning.

[tailgater]

Still a little something left we'll check back in 24hrs.

[MGC]

Code yellow again. Should recurve around 80W.....MGC

[wxman57]

The center of the remnant low is on the northern coast of Haiti. What we're now seeing is strong easterly low-mid level shear due to the large high pressure center building off the east U.S. Coast. The easterly shear has pushed storms west of the center into eastern Cuba. What's left of the vorticity may well move into the Gulf in a few days as strong as the ridge is along the East U.S. Coast, but strong shear and sinking air should prevent any redevelopment.

Check out the crosshairs on this image:

[wxman57]

By the way, that's remnants of Henri in the NW Caribbean today. Strong ridge to north should move it westward across the northern Yucatan into the northern BoC in the next 24-36 hours then westward into Mexico.

[wxman57]

This place (S2K forum) sure is dead.

[tolakram]

You see any major changes coming up that will make the atlantic more favorable for development? Looks like winter down there. It would be nice if the season was over.

[wxman57]

You see any major changes coming up that will make the atlantic more favorable for development? Looks like winter down there. It would be nice if the season was over.

Nope, just the opposite. With the first very strong front blasting across the Gulf into the Caribbean this weekend, the Gulf and area near the East U.S. Coast will be more hostile. However, there is a small chance that a front making it into the NW Caribbean could bring enough instability to the region for something to spin up. Small chance.

[Macrocane]

Climate predction center is predicting with a moderate confidence that the MJO signal will intensify in 2 weeks, that means more atmospheric instability and enhanced reainfall in Central America. My thought is that at the end of week 2 the signal will be propagating eastward into the Caribbean and that will increase the chances for tropical development. As I said the confidence is moderate, next week a new outlook will be issued and will confirm or deny today's outlook.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz_week2_full.gif

[wxman57]

Yes, I see that an upward-motion pulse is predicted for the coming weeks. But the forecast doesn't say that the tremendous shear we have out there now will suddenly go away during this period of upward motion (if it materializes). I do think that it's possible the Caribbean may spawn a late-season storm (like Paloma last year). But shear needs to drop of a lot down there. The Caribbean is a completely different environment now than in 2008.

[Macrocane]

Yes, I see that an upward-motion pulse is predicted for the coming weeks. But the forecast doesn't say that the tremendous shear we have out there now will suddenly go away during this period of upward motion (if it materializes). I do think that it's possible the Caribbean may spawn a late-season storm (like Paloma last year). But shear needs to drop of a lot down there. The Caribbean is a completely different environment now than in 2008.

I agree with you, I don't think we will see something like Paloma because of the strong wind shear maybe something like TD-14 on 2002 or 1994's Gordon.