West Caribbean Action?

[Sanibel]

Satellite shows weak moisture twisting near Nicaragua.

I'm not sounding alarms on this, just pointing out a technical feature that could signify a change in the negative 2009 pattern in this area in the late season climatology of the SW Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

[lrak]

Sure look good Sanibel, whats this talk about models and the BOC after 4 or 5 days? I thought to GOM season was over due to all the cold fronts forecasted?

thanks

lrak AKA karl

[wxman57]

Just a weak tropical wave moving inland into Central America. It'll be in the Pacific tomorrow.

[lrak]

Thank you sir, I can't remember the last time I "watched" a weather forecast

[Sanibel]

Just a weak tropical wave moving inland into Central America. It'll be in the Pacific tomorrow.

There's very subtle pattern changes you have to look for in the climatological October formation area. This may be something and it may not. ?


My look at it is we are having a bit of an uptick in favorability but is is being marginalized by the same 2009 factors that inhibited formation so far.


A look at today's satellite shows the predictions of continuing negativity to be bearing out.

[Sanibel]

Another wave rumble by Nicaragua. Still not able to get over water and form.

[attallaman]

A relative just called me from Texas and asked if I was watching the gulf? I said no I wasn't. She said you better watch out, something's in the gulf. I haven't been here in several weeks, I haven't even been interested in the tropics and hope everything continues to remain quiet. I just checked and I don't see anything in the gulf. Is that system way south of here near central America what my relative could have been talking about? There could be a "fish" storm thousands of miles out in the Atlantic and she'd still call to say "You better be watching the gulf".

[Sanibel]

I think the Gulf is safe for now. 2009 is weird. First we have a recurve track out to the Atlantic and now we have a late-season High over Florida that is keeping things close to South America.

If there was anything to worry over with the Gulf it would be the outside possibility 92L gets back over the Caribbean and forms and heads north into the Gulf. Doesn't look that way right now.

[Sanibel]

Wave axis inland IMO:

[MGC]

Lets not jinx the GOM there Sanibel.....I've got a big trip down to S Fla at the end of the month.......MGC

[jinftl]

NOAA seeing 'something' possibly off the east coast of nicaragua/north of panama...but probability of development still fairly low....let's watch the trend over the weekend

[wxman57]

That wave already moved inland into Central America. Development would be in the East Pac.

[Sanibel]

The 2009 factor is back in charge again. Those betting against formation picked the right horse.

[Frank2]

I think it's safe to say that's about it, folks - have a good off-season...

Frank

[jinftl]

LOL...folks have been going with the 'that's all folks, the season is done' mantra since Claudette. In terms of # of named storms we are dangerously close to be on track for the 1944-2005 climatological average of 10 named storms in a season.

In fact, the NHC data indicates that in the average 10-storm season, storm #8 gets named on September 30 and storm #9 gets named on October 12.

They may have not have been wilma and katrina, but that we have even gotten to the letter H is above and beyond what most on this board expected. Just wait till we get I and maybe J!

[Sanibel]

I don't take a position on the "season's done" stuff because we all know conditions can change unexpectedly.


But you have to admit whatever the negative conditions are that are knocking formation down they are still dominating.

[Frank2]

Yes, and the early winter (since that's what it is) out west and in the upper plains is a sure sign that tropical cyclone formation off the southeast US coast and GOM has ended (not that it ever began in the GOM) - still, there were 2 major hurricanes this season, the rest being weak TS's or TD's, so that's about right for an El Nino season...

It is a drastic change from 4 or 5 years ago, when it seemed the season would continue into January (it did in 2005), but that's the exception...

[Nimbus]

Is there anything at the surface of the Bay Of Campeche? Plenty of convection being kicked up from the shear.

[wxman57]

Is there anything at the surface of the Bay Of Campeche? Plenty of convection being kicked up from the shear.

Nothing but a weak wave axis along the east coast of Mexico in the western BoC. The wave continues moving westward across southern Mexico, but some of the moisture associated with the wave is being drawn up the weak frontal boundary in the western Gulf.

By the way, this is being discussed in the Western GOM thread.