1997 numbers

[boca]

In 1997 we had eight storms. So far in 2009 we have five. The shear is only going to get worse from the El Nino developing although very slowly.I think this year will be slower than 1997.Any thoughts on this.

[WeatherEmperor]

Somebody please correct me if I am wrong. 1997 officially had 7 named storms with 1 un-named subtropical storm. Is this correct? I have noticed that when sometimes when referring to the 1997 season I always see mention of 8 named storms. I know that you post 8 storms, not 8 named storms but I am just curious. Can somebody shed some light on this please?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

7/3/1 were the 1997 numbers.

Code: Select all

1 Tropical Storm ANA  30 JUN-04 JUL  40  1000  -   
2 Hurricane BILL  11 JUL-13 JUL  65  987  1   
3 Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE  13-16 JUL  40  1003  -   
4 Hurricane DANNY  16-26 JUL  70   1   
5 Tropical Depression FIVE  17-19 JUL  30  1008  -   
6 Hurricane ERIKA  03-15 SEP  110  946  3   
7 Tropical Storm FABIAN  07-08 OCT  40  1003  -   
8 Tropical Storm GRACE  16-17 OCT  40  999  -   


[WeatherEmperor]

Luis, from your chart, I see 8 overall storms but only 7 named storms from Ana to Grace. TD 5 was never named. I am sorry. I hope I am not confusing the situation but isnt the number format supposed to be named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes? For example 10/6/2 for an average season means 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Does this make sense or am I going in the wrong direction?

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

The report for 1997 shows 7 named storms with one unnamed subtropical storm. The subtropical storm was deemed as such in post-season analysis.

One stat that hasn't been mentioned is the Accumulated Cyclone energy for the season, ~40. As we are currently at an ACE ~30, the basin would have to go into pretty serious "lock-down" mode to go end that low (just about no hurricanes; certainly no major ones). I'm thinking that we get one more "burst" period, that puts us a fair ways above that.

[Ptarmigan]

1997 was an early starter and had four storms by July (Danny to be exact). Could of been an active year if it was not for that strong El Nino we had.

[CrazyC83]

1997 was an early starter and had four storms by July (Danny to be exact). Could of been an active year if it was not for that strong El Nino we had.

And if it weren't for the fast start, it would have resembled 1983 and other really slow years. That year's Erika must have found a tiny window of opportunity and went through it, since it was really an anamoly.

[Derek Ortt]

7/3/1 were the 1997 numbers.

Code: Select all

1 Tropical Storm ANA  30 JUN-04 JUL  40  1000  -   
2 Hurricane BILL  11 JUL-13 JUL  65  987  1   
3 Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE  13-16 JUL  40  1003  -   
4 Hurricane DANNY  16-26 JUL  70   1   
5 Tropical Depression FIVE  17-19 JUL  30  1008  -   
6 Hurricane ERIKA  03-15 SEP  110  946  3   
7 Tropical Storm FABIAN  07-08 OCT  40  1003  -   
8 Tropical Storm GRACE  16-17 OCT  40  999  -   


it was 8/3/1 Subtrops count as storms

[Derek Ortt]

1997 was an early starter and had four storms by July (Danny to be exact). Could of been an active year if it was not for that strong El Nino we had.

5 storms by mid July, and a TD that John Hope thought for sure would hit the islands as a hurricane (why, I have no clue, sat imagery showed a wall of shear)

[boca]

So far in 2009 we had six storms, in 1997 we had eight.El Nino was strong back then.Our current El Nino is weak and to boot the SOI numbers are just barely negative. I think the 2009 season is toast is far as any more development.( Just an Opinion). I was sure that we would get atleast 9 or 10 storms this year. I'm having my doubts that will even get passed our current number 6 for this year.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just a gut feeling, but I think we will see more storms soon. Probably another 4 named storms... Here is my thinking, and this just an amateur opinion:

1 GOM storm from a stalled out front
1 Atlantic storm near the Bahamas
1 SubTrop Atlantic storm near the Azores area
1 Carribean storm (could be a big one)

[Gustywind]

Just a gut feeling, but I think we will see more storms soon. Probably another 4 named storms... Here is my thinking, and this just an amateur opinion:

1 GOM storm from a stalled out front
1 Atlantic storm near the Bahamas
1 SubTrop Atlantic storm near the Azores area
1 Carribean storm (could be a big one)

Tkanks Emmett, but why do you see a big storm in the Carib? What is your reasoning? Please, i appreciate! You guess that us in the islands are always worryied about anything that could form and maybe head towards the Lesser Antilles, especially when 4 features this season crossed between the 10-20°N west of the 50W, (correct me if i'm wrong?! )...

[Macrocane]

I think we may see 2-3 more storms this season.
1-subtropical/tropical storm on the North Atlantic near Bermuda or the Azores.
1 tropical storm on the Caribbean on october, climatology favors this area. In other years it could have been a big hurricane but as conditions are hostile I say it will be a TS.
1 possible cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane near the Bahamas or the US East Coast, a stalled front may favor development on that area.

[Gustywind]

Tkanks guys for these "predictions"

[boca]

I don't think theirs going to be any tropical formation in the Caribbean because of shear. When you have an El Nino usually the shear is higher in this area. If something tries to form its just going to get its top blown off. We might get development out of the MDR area, but not the Caribbean.

[Iune]

Just a gut feeling, but I think we will see more storms soon. Probably another 4 named storms... Here is my thinking, and this just an amateur opinion:

1 GOM storm from a stalled out front
1 Atlantic storm near the Bahamas
1 SubTrop Atlantic storm near the Azores area
1 Carribean storm (could be a big one)

Grace and Henri came pretty close

[cycloneye]

The report for 1997 shows 7 named storms with one unnamed subtropical storm. The subtropical storm was deemed as such in post-season analysis.

One stat that hasn't been mentioned is the Accumulated Cyclone energy for the season, ~40. As we are currently at an ACE ~30, the basin would have to go into pretty serious "lock-down" mode to go end that low (just about no hurricanes; certainly no major ones). I'm thinking that we get one more "burst" period, that puts us a fair ways above that.

2009 passed the 40 number thanks to Fred.But I dont think it will reach 50 in the rest of the season.