The Gulf's Big Labor Day Storm... This Weekend!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well looks as though it is finally our time to to get smashed by one of this season's strongest storm yet
Seriously though we need some rain it is really drying up quickly around here. Not to hot but just so dry with low humidity with all this east coast troughing. Seems there is no real tropical storm formation threat.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MOITURE IS RAPIDLY MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET A BETTER COVERAGE TODAY WITH HEATING THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS BAROCLINICITY
INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE OLD FRONTAL AXIS TO HELP DEVELOP A LONG FETCH OF SH/TS
ACTIVITY FROM THE SW GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW
CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOST INTENSE
BLOWUPS AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY COME ASHORE BUT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY FROM ALA BACK INTO THE EAST AREAS OF SE LA. BUT EVERYONE
WILL BE GETTING THEIR SHARE OF RAIN BY THE TIME THIS ONE IS IN THE
BOOKS.


.LONG TERM...
IF A SFC LOW DOES FORM ON THE OLD BOUNDARY BY TUE NEAR THE AREA...IT
WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR THE SECOND STRONGER FORCING FEATURE PROVIDED BY
A QUICKLY DIGGING UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
SUPPOSED TO MOVE IN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE LINE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON A DAILY BASIS COULD SET UP SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

Everyone have a save labor day weekend and enjoy some needed rain.

[baygirl_1]

Yeah, they're telling us the same thing: rain Sun. and Mon. And as we were driving home from school today we had a heavy rain storm. It seemed more like a tropical-type rain: bucketfuls of rain with no lightning or thunder. Hopefully these fronts that keep making it to the Gulf won't leave a little something behind that could wreak havoc on a perfectly good boring season!

[attallaman]

Well whatever is causing it I'm getting my second night in a row of heavy rain and lots of lightning and thunder, quite a light show right now. I just hope that no structures get hit by lightning during the night causing other problems.

[attallaman]

OT: I was watching the tropical weather update on TWC this morning and Dr. Steve Lyons was pointing out 2 areas of interest close to the USA, one was an area of thunderstorms off the east coast of FL near Jacksonville and the second area was a cluster of thunderstorms in the BOC which if I understood him right the area in the BOC might develop into something and drift north towards TX and could possibly give that area much needed rain or if anything were to develop in the BOC it might affect the central GOM. Has anyone heard or read anything about that?

[lrak]

Corpus Christi morning discussion

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Kinda cryptic language for me but looks like some rain for GOM coastal areas finally.

Happy Labor Day!

[wxman57]

OT: I was watching the tropical weather update on TWC this morning and Dr. Steve Lyons was pointing out 2 areas of interest close to the USA, one was an area of thunderstorms off the east coast of FL near Jacksonville and the second area was a cluster of thunderstorms in the BOC which if I understood him right the area in the BOC might develop into something and drift north towards TX and could possibly give that area much needed rain or if anything were to develop in the BOC it might affect the central GOM. Has anyone heard or read anything about that?

I'm looking at the upper-level wind forecast for the western and SW Gulf. Strong west winds aloft today forecast to increase over the next few days. So no development threat there, and it'll be hard for that moisture to work its way northward. GFS does show some of the moisture making it up to Brownsville in 3-4 days.

[jinftl]

Much calmer Labor Day weekend along the North Central Gulf this year!!!

[gatorcane]

One run of the 06Z GFS shows something in the GOM forming way out at 13 days from now. However, it is long-range and just one run (see models thread).

Other than that, nothing in the GOM for a while it looks like.

[Dionne]

A lot of lightning strikes out there in the Gulf. I'll bet all the Carnival cruise ship folks are having fun on the Sunday return into Mobile. I can almost see the "barf bags" hanging by the elevators.

[attallaman]

Corpus Christi morning discussion

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Kinda cryptic language for me but looks like some rain for GOM coastal areas finally.

Happy Labor Day!

I attempted to read that link and you're right, I would need a decoder to translate what was said since I'm not a MET but we have wxman57 here to help us out.

[BigA]

The Canadian has a fairly decent system developing at the 4-5 day time frame in the Gulf, but no other model is in accordance.

[lrak]

The Canadian has a fairly decent system developing at the 4-5 day time frame in the Gulf, but no other model is in accordance.

I sure thought this afternoon the GOM would of looked bit better, thanks for the shear update Wxman57.. and 4to 5 days BigA, man I keep waiting for a perfect storm. A depression that hit us for a couple of days of rain and then an early September COLD front....I guy can wish.

Side note, went golfing today, its 5 years...OMG, never again unless the temperature is under 65F degrees WXman57's voodoo hit me hard today

[Portastorm]

I don't know about this weekend but I do see that the 0z Euro develops a low in the western Gulf next weekend and it appears to be of tropical origin.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_144.gif

[Portastorm]

12z GFS shows a tropical low developing in the BOC by 72 hours and moving into south Texas by 120-132 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_132l.gif

[Flyinman]

That would be a blessing. I hope all it stays is a low and just brings us ALL some much needed rain but especially South Texas.

[Nimbus]

Looks like an anticyclone building over the southern Bay of Campeche. If had to pick a spot where tropical activity might develop it would be centered under that high. If it tried to move north before it developed it would get sheared though.

[chzzdekr81]

Has anybody looked at the storm in the Gulf? I have a feeling that this will be a pop up storm. Does anyone think this thing could develop into a depression in the next few days?