11 AM Storm2k Tropical Weather Outlook

[Stormsfury]

The Tropical Weather Outlook for August 2nd, 2003 at 11 am EDT
can be found below at http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

90L maintains some convection ... but the surrounding atmosphere is rather dry at this time.

[chadtm80]

updated the map 12pm

[chadtm80]

Dry Air battle.. A pictures worth a thousand words

[vbhoutex]

Looks like the dry air from the SAL did finally get to 90L. It will be struggling for at least the next 48 hours to maintain its' identity. I thought I saw some low level turning this am on the sat loops, but it could have been at mid level instead. Lately though it is very hard to detect if there is any. We may have an open wave now.

I'm more impressed with the wave passing through the islands just off the N Coast of SA. It has maintained and increased its' convection even the face of strong shear from the SW. We may need to keep an eye on this one even though it is skirting the coast.

Even though Joe B seems to think the ULL and TW E of the Bahamas is going to do something this weekend tropically and threaten the E coast I must respectfully disagree. If it does anything it is going to be riding the W side of the ridge and trough off the E coast back NE to sea, imo.

[Stormsfury]

Looks like the dry air from the SAL did finally get to 90L. It will be struggling for at least the next 48 hours to maintain its' identity. I thought I saw some low level turning this am on the sat loops, but it could have been at mid level instead. Lately though it is very hard to detect if there is any. We may have an open wave now.

I'm more impressed with the wave passing through the islands just off the N Coast of SA. It has maintained and increased its' convection even the face of strong shear from the SW. We may need to keep an eye on this one even though it is skirting the coast.

Even though Joe B seems to think the ULL and TW E of the Bahamas is going to do something this weekend tropically and threaten the E coast I must respectfully disagree. If it does anything it is going to be riding the W side of the ridge and trough off the E coast back NE to sea, imo.

I agree, VB, in the regards to the ULL/TW couplet ... notice the winds are southerly along the Southeast Coast and that current trough is only going to be reinforced by another s/w digging across the East.

[chadtm80]

I'm more impressed with the wave passing through the islands just off the N Coast of SA. It has maintained and increased its' convection even the face of strong shear from the SW. We may need to keep an eye on this one even though it is skirting the coast.

I wonder if the TWO will mention it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[chadtm80]

Here is a pic I saved at 2pm zoomed in on the E. Carib storm.. Nice ball of convections

http://storm2k.org/uploaded_images/CHAD/Image10.JPG

[southerngale]

Holy Moly! That looks a lot better than 90L. And closer to home as well....any mention of it by NHC?

[Guest]

That's some blobology happening in the E. Caribbean - do we need to watch?

Comments please.

[Stormsfury]

Possibly, however, there's a lot of shear that the wave is approaching ... look just a little farther west around 70ºW...not to mention, the wave is entering the TZOD right now.

SF