Interesting little feature in NE Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Being January,it is interesting to see this trough spinning.Of course,nothing will develop,but it will bring some inclement weather to the islands this weekend.

AN UPPER LEVER LOW (TUTT) WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 50W EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD PATTERN IS EXHIBITING A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...
AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OVER THE FA BY EARLY SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WE NEED TO STAY TUNE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[boca]

It looks like a ULL out there. Its moving west towards the Leewards which is unusual since its January and the westerlies usually rip these features apart.La Nina is coming back so who knows.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Latest discussion from the San Juan NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 AM AST THU JAN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 12Z SJU SOUNDING REFLECTS A RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WITH A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 800 AND 650
MB...INDICATIVE OF STABILITY IN LOW LEVELS AND WHY THE SKY THIS
MORNING HAS A SOMEWHAT HAZY APPEARANCE. SAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNDER LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR AND SOME SAT IMAGES
FROM YESTERDAY SHOW SOME OF THE DUST ACROSS THE EAST TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY FORESEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AS ELONGATED LINES OF MOISTURE MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT DEFINITELY AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THIS WAS REFLECTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GFS STILL
CLINGING TO PREVIOUS DAYS SOLUTION WITH RETROGRADING TUTT LOW
ESTIMATED FROM VISUAL SAT PIX AROUND 15N53W PROPAGATING WEST TO
JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO AND NAM12 SOLUTION FRIDAY TO SATURDAY PERIOD APPEARS TO
BE ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[KWT]

Whilst still interesting to see such a feature heading westward at this time of the year but probably not that unusual I'd guess...

Still a tiny tease for later in the season....

[gatorcane]

yep just noticed it. Very interesting indeed.

[RL3AO]

LEIK zOMG@!!@ Why isn't it 90L yet! WAKE UP NHC!


IS THAT AN EYE?!?!

[tolakram]

Eye like feature....

[cycloneye]

Well not a joke that Ramsdis has a floater over this.

[somethingfunny]

That is one monstrous looking TUTT.

[Gustywind]

So we should keep an eye on this for maybe unstelled weather conditions here in Guadeloupe...Let's see what this feature could bring really.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST FRI JAN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WHICH HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. LATEST MIMIC-TPW
SHOWS THIS FEATURE WELL DEFINED...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PROPAGATING SLOWLY WESTWARD FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR 54W EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THIS
FEATURE TO THE LOCAL AREA. GFS COMPUTER MODEL SHOWED THAT THE
BIGGEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
18Z...WHEN WE EXPECT THAT THE MOISTURE ALREADY INCREASING...WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. NAM12 MODEL FORECAST A WET SATURDAY ALSO. IN FACT...THE
17/06Z FORECAST SOUNDING FROM NAM12 SHOWS THAT PW VALUES WILL BE
OVER 2.00 INCHES BY THAT TIME. MOST COMPUTER MODEL ALSO AGREE THAT
A DRIER TREND WILL START ON TUESDAY AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAVE OUR AREA...AND OUR LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATE BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THAT TIME. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
DURING THE NEXT DAYS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[Gustywind]

Good post Cycloneye Tkanks
Unstelled weather is expected here given our Pro-Met of Meteo-France and these conditions should stay until Sunday (numerous moderate showers with thunder locally are predicted), lets see what happens...

[CrazyC83]

Offseason cancel???

[cycloneye]

We are supposed to be in the dry season,which goes from January to March.But this trough is bringing above normal rainfall for this time of the year.It looks like a wet weekend.

[expat2carib]

Torrential rain here on Dominica...........

Dry season.........not right now.

[Gustywind]

Moderate passing showers here for the moment, hope no more this weekend i have many activities outdoor it will be a nightmare for me... Let's keep our fingers crossed

[cycloneye]

As expected,its a cloudy and intervals of showers passing thru today.Sunday looks more dry but lets see in reallity what happens in the rest of the long weekend.