North to Northwest swell expected in the Northern Leewards

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends, hope you're in shape ? Me i'm fine.
I was just looking at our weather site of Meteo-France and listening to the radio and...seems that Meteo-France is on strike ( not good news). Whereas,looking closely at our weather site (meteo.gp), an yellow alert has been required for a swell from the North to Northwest yesterday morning ( Tuesday October 21th)at 12am and has began this yesterday
afternoon , so my friend from the Northern keep watching it... I translate you the latest weather forecast from this yellow alert:
Synopsis
A swell who has formed on the west Atlantic, north of the Bahamas, begins to concern the area to the north of Puerto Rico. This swell is propagating near our islands during the night and tommorow.
Forecasts
Arrival of swell from the north, with a slight component from the Northwest on the Northern Leewards Islands approaching at the this day. This swell should amplifies a bit, to reach 1 meter and 20 centimeters to 2 meters ( 6'7) beetwen Wednesday and Friday .
Datas...expected
The swell is pretty long, the period is at 14 second, and could be higher than 2 meters ( waves average) this Wednesday.
Consequences
Be carefull at the rolls of the waves on the exposed beaches, shores, added to the strong lap in some bays, especially the harbour of Gustavia.
From the shore, no risk especially.
Summary
Risk ( expected feature): moderate.
Impact expected:weak
Since yesterday night (October 21th); duration expected:at least 48 hours.
Next weather forecast
Wednesday October 22th at 8am...
Duration
So be prudent my friend from the Northern Leewards, specials thoughts for you Msbee...

[Gustywind]

Good news Meteo-France has just issued the latest weather forecast at 8am this morning. The yellow alert is maintained because of the first effects are felt in the Northern Leewards Islands... I translate you the latest weather forecast from this yellow alert:
Synopsis
A swell who has formed on the west Atlantic, north of the Bahamas, has reached our islands the night before. In this beginning of day, we observe at St Barth a sweel from the North to the Northeast , with averaging waves at 2 meters. On St Croix, we observe a swell from the North to the Northwest with a period of 13 seconds.
Forecasts
This swell is continuing. The waves reach 2 meters with a pretty long period 11 to 13 seconds. The direction is from the North, with a possible Northwest tendency.
Consequences
Be carefull at the rolls of the waves on the exposed beaches, shores, added to the strong lap in some bays, especially for example the harbour of Gustavia.
From the shore, no risk especially.
Summary
Risk ( expected feature): feature has already bring its first effects.
Impact expected:weak
Duration
duration expected: at least Friday
Next weather forecast: Wednesday October 22th at 6 PM.
Continue to be on your guard my friends from the Northern Leewards, specials thoughts for you Msbee... Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST WED OCT 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED WEATHER ACTIVITY IS BEEN REPORTED BY THE
DOPPLER RADAR AS ONLY SHOWED PASSING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. ONCE AGAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET. TONIGHT....MOISTURE
FRAGMENTS WILL MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGH ENHANCING SHOWER DEVELOP EMT ALONG
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGH AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT THIS MOMENT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE LONG PERIOD NNW
SWELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF
SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE AFTERNOON MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ
BETWEEN 18Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...PEAKING LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR 7 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL IS FORECASTING A LARGER SWELL BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SWELL WILL BE FROM THE NNE AND
COULD REACH 8 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 20 30 40 50
STT 88 75 88 75 / 30 20 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

$$

93/10/

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 220833
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST WED OCT 22 2008

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS THIS EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 5 MPH.

A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL AND LOCAL TERRAIN
INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED AND OF SHORT DURATION.
OVERALL...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION WELL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED
FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO REACH THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND BUILD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC...AND PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF
SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN THROUGH THURSDAY NOON.

$$

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_in.pdf
To have the french version of the yellow alert, and... for those who are interrested to improve their french lol bets are opening lol .
Have a good day all.
Gustywind

[TYNI]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_in.pdf
To have the french version of the yellow alert, and... for those who are interrested to improve their french lol bets are opening lol .
Have a good day all.
Gustywind

Merci beaucoup, mon ami!

[lrak]

Rip il vers le haut.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_in.pdf
To have the french version of the yellow alert, and... for those who are interrested to improve their french lol bets are opening lol .
Have a good day all.
Gustywind

Merci beaucoup, mon ami!

Oh good, nice i'm glad to see that you speak perfectly french, amazing. De rien mon ami, j'apprécie beacoup cette intention ! Merci infiniment TYNI, à bientot!

[Gustywind]

Rip il vers le haut.

OHH NICE , good you want to say island (means île in french , not IL, IL written like that means HE ( il) so île vers le haut is the NORTHERN LEEWARDS ( îles du Nord Saint Martin in french = St Marteen in english . Tkanks Irak i appreciate congratulations i give you 20/20!

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 222018
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 PM AST WED OCT 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
AN ELONGATED TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W/53W WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FRAGMENTED
PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TO OCCUR
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW PREVAILS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WILL BE LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF
SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
TISX...TIST...TKPK...AND TNCM FROM 00Z-010Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 30 30 50 20
STT 75 88 75 88 / 30 40 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

$$

17/71

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 221951
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 PM AST WED OCT 22 2008

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT 15
MPH.

A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL AND LOCAL TERRAIN
INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED AND OF SHORT DURATION.
OVERALL...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION WELL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED
FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO REACH THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND BUILD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC...AND PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST
OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FACING COASTLINES
OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN THROUGH THURSDAY NOON.

$$

[Gustywind]

No more changes my friends from the NORTH, always an yellow alert for the Northern Leewards Islands...so be prudent as usual!
"SWELL FROM THE NORTH"...YELLOW ALERT

Synopsis
Persisting swell came from the north on our islands, composing with the sea due to the the Northeast wind.
Forecasts
The waves reach 2 meters with a pretty long period near 10 seconds. The direction is from the North, with a slight possible NorthNorthWest tendency.
Consequences
Be carefull at the rolls of the waves on the exposed beaches, shores, added to the strong lap in some bays, especially for example the harbour of Gustavia if the NorthWest swell occurs to enter.
From the shore, no risk especially.
Summary
Risk ( expected feature): feature has already bring its first effects.
Impact expected:weak
Duration
Expected duration: at least Friday
Next weather forecast: Thursday October 23th before 5 PM.

So be carefull my friends from the Northern Leewards, specials thoughts for you Msbee... and the others too in vicinity!
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230927
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST THU OCT 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 50 WEST IS
COMBINING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
REINFORCE THE NORTHEAST TRADES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A MOVING ON
SHORE AND AFFECTING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. STRONGER WINDS HELPED THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE MORE INLAND
AFFECTING THE EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LIMITED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND PRODUCE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. TONIGHT...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH FEW
AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF
SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH LATER TODAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...THIS WILL PRODUCE
A CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE WAVEWATCH 3
MODEL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LARGER SWELL BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SWELL WILL BE FROM THE NNE AND COULD REACH
8 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 77 / 30 30 20 50
STT 88 75 88 76 / 30 30 40 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

93/10/

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 230840
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST THU OCT 23 2008

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS...NOT PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE WINDS WERE FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR TODAY...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS
TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A PLEASANT NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND VERY MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY .

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...THE RECENT SWELL ENERGY WHICH AFFECTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES IS SUBSIDING AND THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ARE
URGED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AS SWELLS SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SET
OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$