Australian cyclone outlooks for 2008/09

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The BoM has now issued its seasonal forecasts/outlooks for the upcoming tropical cyclone season.

Here's TCWC Perth's:

Outlook for tropical cyclone season for North West Australia
Issued 20 October 2008
Weather Bureau Warns of Early Cyclone Risk

People in Western Australia’s northwest are being urged to ensure they are ready for the upcoming cyclone season. “This season there is a higher-than-normal risk of a pre-Christmas tropical cyclone and with the cyclone season rapidly approaching it is important that residents start preparations immediately.” explained Andrew Burton, Manager of Severe Weather Services.

There were four cyclones in the waters off Northwest Australia last season. TC Nicholas crossed the coast near Coral Bay as a Category 1 cyclone and Pancho produced flooding while it was still well offshore, but overall the impacts were minor. “With the likelihood of early activity, we expect to see a greater number of cyclones this season. A total of around 5 to 7 cyclones are expected and it is likely we’ll see around two coastal impacts with one of them being severe” Mr. Burton said. Coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk of anywhere in Australia. “The most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, to understand the warning service, and to be suitably prepared” he said. The call comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the FESA-State Emergency Service begin a tour of the northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness and preparation initiatives.

Current high values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest there is likely to be an early start to the season with an increased risk of an early coastal crossing. However, climate modeling suggests that sea surface temperatures will remain near normal across the Pacific this summer and that the atmosphere will remain in a neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state for the coming cyclone season. This means it is likely to be an average to slightly above average season overall.

Details of the 2008/2009 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for North West Australia:

* Likelihood of a cyclone off the northwest coast before Christmas and a higher than usual risk of an early season coastal impact.
* 5 to 7 cyclones in waters off the northwest coast (average number is 5).
* Likelihood of around 2 coastal impacts.
* Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.

For further information and weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/.

Further enquires to: Severe Weather Section
Ph. (08) 9263 2222; email: sevwx_wa@bom.gov.au
Severe Weather Section, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth.
Information on preparing for cyclones is available from the Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia: http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au/

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TCWC Darwin:

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Region
Territorians urged to learn cyclone lessons from past few seasons

With the Cyclone Season starting on 1 November, the Bureau of Meteorology in Darwin has urged Northern Territory residents to take heed of some of the lessons from recent years.

"Although the outlook indicates slightly more active conditions than normal, the real message is that we need to have our plans ready during every cyclone season, active or not", said NT Regional Director, Dr Andrew Tupper, from the Bureau's Casuarina headquarters.

"We saw from Cyclone Helen last season that, despite a good forecast several weeks in advance of when that cyclone was likely to happen, even the best science can't always give more than 12-24 hours of the likely track and intensity of the cyclone when it hits. And with Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, we learnt not only that even when you've got a pretty strong consensus on the forecast track, a cyclone's going to do what it's going to do and can also be a threat a long way inland, and we have to be prepared. All people that live or visit near the coast should be making preparations now, listening out for watches and warnings, and should pay attention to advice from the Northern Territory Emergency Services."

Tropical Cyclone Helen, a Category 2 cyclone, caused substantial power and tree damage disruption when it crossed the Territory Coast south of Darwin earlier this year. Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, a Category 5 cyclone, swerved aside from a Darwin-bound track to narrowly miss Maningrida in April 2006, causing extensive damage in the town but widespread devastation of the forest at the uninhabited crossing-point 35 km to the west. Monica also maintained Tropical Cyclone intensity a long way inland, causing significant damage as far as Jabiru.

The Territory's lead severe weather specialist, Ian Shepherd, said that "the Bureau's outlook suggests a possible early start to tropical cyclone activity in the Timor Sea this season, and slightly above average numbers of tropical cyclones around northern Australia. But the signals aren't all that strong." He also urged people who have recently moved to the Territory to pay particular attention to their cyclone preparations.

Details of the outlook for the 2008/2009 tropical cyclone season for the Northern Region:

* An early cyclone (i.e. before Christmas) is possible this year in the Timor Sea.
* This season may produce an above average number of tropical cyclones around the Top End. In an average year, 2 to 3 cyclones form in the Northern Region. As many as 5 tropical cyclones have formed in a season since records began.
* There is an even chance of a severe tropical cyclone (Category 3 or greater) during the season.
* On average there is around one coastal impact in the Northern Territory during each season.

The 2008/2009 tropical cyclone season outlook is based on high values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), near average sea surface temperatures about northern Australia and recent climate patterns in the Australian and south Pacific region. These patterns indicate a neutral El Niño - Southern Oscillation situation.

The Northern Region incorporates the eastern Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further enquires can be directed to Ian Shepherd (08) 8920 3821 or Todd Smith (08) 8920 3820, email: ntsevere@bom.gov.au

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TCWC Brisbane:

Monday, 20 October 2008
Outlook for the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season 2008-09
A Tropical Cyclone Coastal Impact is more likely than not

Queenslanders are being urged to prepare early for the cyclone and flood season with monsoonal activity expected to be on the upper side of normal. Although a repeat of the widespread flooding rains of last season cannot be ruled out, the chances are not as great in the absence of a well-established La Niña.

The outlook for the coming season was issued today by the Bureau of Meteorology at the official launch of the annual campaign to raise awareness of the various risks associated with natural hazards.

The Bureau's Regional Director, Jim Davidson described the general climate pattern as being essentially a neutral one which is expected to remain that way during the Spring and Summer months. However there were some indicators (such as a positive Southern Oscillation Index) that suggest the current bias towards the La Niña side of neutral could continue.

Since 1980, over the August-October period, there have been three occasions with a general climate pattern somewhat similar to this one. It is interesting to note that in each of the following seasons a Category 2 or Category 3 cyclone made landfall on the east coast - namely Aivu, Rona, and Abigail.

"A coastal crossing by a destructive cyclone during the coming season should be seriously considered in preparations" Mr Davidson said. "We know that it only takes a single land-falling cyclone to cause a disaster and the continuing growth in coastal development is increasing community vulnerability."

Mr Davidson emphasized, as he has in the past, that early preparation was a key element in disaster mitigation strategy. He also reaffirmed the need to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods - and to have a basic understanding of the Bureau's warning services.

The annual pre-season campaign commences in Mackay on Tuesday (21 October), in partnership with the Queensland Departments of Emergency Services, Public Works, and Environmental Protection Agency. Between now and December, the campaign trail will lead to major coastal and inland centres, with a focus on cyclone, storm tide and flood awareness, preparedness and response

At all times, the official source of information on tropical cyclones is the Bureau's web page at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone. During a cyclone, the latest information from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre is also available by dialing 1300 659 212 (for the cost of a local call).

Flood, river and rainfall information is regularly updated at http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld. Flood Warnings are also available by dialing 1300 659 219 (for the cost of a local call).

This Outlook only applies to the Coral Sea and Queensland's east coast. The Seasonal Outlook for the Gulf of Carpentaria is issued by the Northern Territory Regional Office.

The Bureau is celebrating its Centenary in 2008, and during the year, the Queensland Regional Office relocated its operations to 69 Ann St Brisbane, which is also the new home of the Queensland Tropical Cyclone and Flood Warning Centres.

For further information and media interviews:
Jim Davidson 0409 641 216 - Ann Farrell 0400 999 310 - Peter Baddiley 0418 253 117

World Wide Web http://www.bom.gov.au