Morale boosting NHC Discussions

[jinftl]

The saga of Olga...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI NOV 30 2001
...OLGA NOW A DEPRESSION...END OF HURRICANE SEASON IN SIGHT...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT
665 MILES...1075 KM...EAST OF NASSUA IN THE BAHAMAS.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR. A CONTINUATION OF THIS TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2001
...OLGA HANGING ON...HEADING TOWARDS OVERTIME...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST OR ABOUT
655 MILES...1055 KM...EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

OLGA HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. OLGA IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT DEC 01 2001
...OLGA LINGERS ON...PUSHES THE HURRICANE SEASON INTO OVERTIME...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT
570 MILES...920 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE DEC 04 2001
...OLGA SHOWING NO SIGNS OF GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 315 MILES...505 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME ERRATIC
OR LOOPING MOTION MAY ALSO OCCUR.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 112036
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008


ODILE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS REALLY FOOLED ME AS ODILE...THE
EVIL CHARACTER IN THE BALLET SWAN LAKE...FOOLED THE PRINCE.

AVILA

[MiamiensisWx]

The first paragraph merits inclusion as well...

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 112036
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

I WILL HAVE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS IN THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ON
ITS WAY TO NORBERT...WENT THROUGH ODILE AND FOUND A VERY
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
WERE QUITE WEAK AND THE SFMR MEASURED 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN SMALL AREA
NEAR THE CENTER AND I AM NOT SURE IF THESE SFMR WINDS ARE GOOD OR
NOT. MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 1009 MB BUT COULD BE LOWER
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE WAS VERY DISORGANIZED AND THE DROPSONDE DID NOT
HIT THE SURFACE CENTER. A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...CONTINUITY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS TO ADJUST THE
INITIAL INTENSITY DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BUT THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. I AM
NOT GOING TO WRITE AT THIS TIME THE REASON OF SUCH SUDDEN DEMISE OF
THE STORM BECAUSE I DO NOT HAVE THE ANSWER. HOWEVER...I WILL BE
GIVING CREDIT TO NUMERICAL MODELS WHICH HAS BEEN INSISTING ON
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS
FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THIS COULD HAPPEN QUICKER IF THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND OR THERE IS MORE INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...IF
THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS FOR A
RAPID WEAKENING. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS TO BE REVERSED AGAIN.

ODILE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS REALLY FOOLED ME AS ODILE...THE
EVIL CHARACTER IN THE BALLET SWAN LAKE...FOOLED THE PRINCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.9N 102.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.6N 104.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 19.3N 106.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 107.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

This one is (easily) one of the best gems I have seen from Lixion Avila...

[pojo]

too bad I can't get the plane tapes..... we've had some interesting conversations about the storms/forecasters/drops etc.....

When we stopped by the NHC in August.... I had asked the forecaster on duty (I believe it was Pasch) on where Forecaster Franklin was.... I was going to comment to him that we had plenty of dropsonde target practice during Fay (I personally hit the beach with a sonde twice on the same flight)... LOL

.... the female storms this year explained by forecaster Pasch....
Bertha.... did she finally find the needle in the haystack??
Dolly.... the teenage daughter.... could go from 0-65 in the snap of a finger
Fay... Typical MIL... can't get rid of her....
Hanna.... revenge ... bad break up with Gustav.

[Category 5]

NANA HASN'T BEEN PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO QUALIFY FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS FOR MANY HOURS...SO IT'S TIME TO SING NA NA HEY HEY
KISS HER GOODBYE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON NANA. WITH SUCH
STRONG SHEAR FORECAST IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...REGENERATION IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.