Little spin with the wave at 54W?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Little spin with the wave at 54W?

#1 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 12, 2008 11:01 am

Interresting twave since 48h, convection is popping nicely but not sufficiently to main something pretty decent for the moment. But this feature shows as the TWD well mentionned it" SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. Developpement or not this feature could be our next invest or weather "threat" for us in the East Carib in already a very moist atmosphere! It seems that this wave will bring a nice round of showers and possible tstorms tuesday night in North Windwards Islands / Leewards Leewards given our Prom Met of Meteo-France ( should it verifies first too! :cheesy: ).
Tiny envellope but very concentrated convection and trying to spin steadily... Let's see what happens during the next 24h as we're a bit far away from an quickly increasing system with my untrained eyes. :cheesy: :)
We should monitor it in case of as winds are forecasted to be a bit more favorable in vicinity of the islands....

From the latest TWD 805 AM
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W FROM 14N-22N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. OTHERWISE...WAVE IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Looks like a little perturbed area if things continue to improve....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#2 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 12, 2008 11:08 am

Thougts as usual are welcomed and appreciated :) my friends. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#3 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:43 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131113 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

...CORRECTED TIME TO 805 AM...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL IS NEAR 21N61W.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, AnnularCane, Google Adsense [Bot], Kennethb, TampaWxLurker, TomballEd and 94 guests