Long Range Models

[cycloneye]

If GFS is right,it looks like the break from Tropical Cyclones may be over after the 20th.Here is the 18z GFS loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Stormcenter]

It's time start closing the door on the Cape Verde season. After Ike I can't take anymore.

[Isadora]

there's nothing out there for the next weeks... so this is what the experts call an active september huh? how disappointing...

[Meso]

Isadora? You looked at the models?







I have no idea what makes you think that... Almost every model hints at something

[Frank2]

Let's see what happens down the road - as we learned here in South Florida, the models change from run to run...

Everyone here was nearing an anxiety attack due to the Ike model runs, until it began to shift southward, so...

We'll cross that bridge when we come to it (if it hasn't been washed out)...

LOL

[micktooth]

Can someone please explain to me what the GFS sees in the Gulf in a couple of days?

[cycloneye]

Maybe October may not be inactive after all as a song says.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Sanibel]

Can't understand how GFS could see a CV belt system so far out. It thinks it is still September. Looks like a ghost storm.

[Stormcenter]

It's almost time to stick a fork in the 2008 season as far as as
anything "major" again affecting the Western and northern GOM coastline. IMO

[El Nino]

I said 5 more storms before Kyle's birth. Now, we need 3 more in october and november. It's surely possible, even more !

[Frank2]

That GFS is goofy sometimes - it seems to initialize even a lone shower into a hurricane...

[cycloneye]

Yeah,I know this is fantasy going 16 days out,but anyway,its interesting to see this (GFS) model showing this.Lets see if other models follow with time or this is pure panthom.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

GFS 12Z keeps showing this monster cane in the Western Atlantic:

[wxman57]

Can't understand how GFS could see a CV belt system so far out. It thinks it is still September. Looks like a ghost storm.

The GFS has predicted something to develop in the eastern Atlantic in the 7-14 day range for about every run since May.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can't understand how GFS could see a CV belt system so far out. It thinks it is still September. Looks like a ghost storm.

The GFS has predicted something to develop in the eastern Atlantic in the 7-14 day range for about every run since May.

It nailed Bertha!

[bvigal]

Here ya go, from GFS, a nice fish storm to track!
Oct 9, 18z


Oct 14, 12z

[bvigal]

GFS still showing this development, but today's run shows it a little more W before turning N.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST MON OCT 6 2008

...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS JUST EXITED AFRICA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AS OCEANIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS
THIS REGION.

[bvigal]

Canadian: