TD6 Forecast #1...

[MWatkins]

Looks like convection is fading a bit but not uncommon at all with developing TD's in the Atlantic. We'll probably see a burst overnight which will go ahead and send this system to TS strength.

Amazing that in 1997, Erika was the ONLY hurricane or TS to develop in September after the first August EVER without a named storm.

In 2003...we're probably going to get our E storm in the last 10 days of July. Amazing...

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003-TC06.htm

MW

[cycloneye]

MW what do you think of how will Puerto Rico be with respect to the trackof TD#6/Erika?

[MWatkins]

It's still a little early and if you ask me that tomorrow night I'd probably feel a little better about the answer...but right now I think the SW tip has the highest probability of being directly affected...I think the eastern half will be OK.

Of course...that could all change tomorrow...our first good global run will be tonight...

MW

[vbhoutex]

Looks like convection is fading a bit but not uncommon at all with developing TD's in the Atlantic. We'll probably see a burst overnight which will go ahead and send this system to TS strength.

Amazing that in 1997, Erika was the ONLY hurricane or TS to develop in September after the first August EVER without a named storm.

In 2003...we're probably going to get our E storm in the last 10 days of July. Amazing...

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003-TC06.htm

MW

I thought my 18/8/5 was gonna be way too high, now it looks like it could be low if the season continues at the current pace and even heats up at peak time!!! Definitely already one for the record books and could be really historical!!

[southerngale]

Oops...I think you meant 15/8/5 David...lol

But that might be right!!!! :o