Models develop Erika as a hurricane south of Puerto Rico

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:35 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03071918

Ships model develop a hurricane out of this system.System looks like a TD now with good outflow and center now below the deep convection so if not at 5 PM at 11 PM it will be upgraded to TD#6 if organization continues.Scroll down the link to see the system east of the islands and what the models are showing.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:43 pm

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/ ... invest.gif

Here are the grafics of the models at 1800 UTC.

Derek Ortt · #3 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:45 pm

System looks good, though dont be surprised if this doesnt track slightly to the north of the projections. Still waiting for the new models though.

However, extremely unlikely this will be classified at 5 or even 11 since T numbers arent even being issued on the system yet, at leats from ssd

chadtm80 · #4 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:57 pm

ooo.. If he disagrees then you mus tbe right Ortt :-)

kmanWX · #5 Postby **kmanWX** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:01 pm

chadtm80 wrote:ooo.. If he disagrees then you mus tbe right Ortt

Yea! So true!

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:07 pm

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

UKMET model jumps on ERIKA and this is big because this model is one of the best ones around.Scroll down the link to see the UKMET plots for the system.

Steve H. · #7 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:45 pm

Cycloneye. Where is the link to the UKMET? Thanks in advance!

Lindaloo · #8 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:50 pm

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Here ya go Steve.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:50 pm

Steve above your post at my post about UKMET .Scroll down and at the end you will see the UKMET information for system 97L.

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 3:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:System looks good, though dont be surprised if this doesnt track slightly to the north of the projections. Still waiting for the new models though.

However, extremely unlikely this will be classified at 5 or even 11 since T numbers arent even being issued on the system yet, at leats from ssd

Guess not :o

Steve H. · #11 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 5:12 pm

Thanks Lindaloo and Cycloneye!

These storms are great one's to track. Too early to tell where she may go, though the eastern Caribbean islands is a sure bet. Have a feeling this one may have a more northerly component to it. Only a gut feel as it has its head up, like she's looking WNW and has been gaining latitude. I don't think shear will be much of a problem at all, which makes me nervous. Things is if she gets as far north as near Puerto Rico and crosses through the islands north of hispaniola, she will be riding the ridge where she could intensify quite a bit. An trough will enter the picture later in the period. If she's on the north side of Hispaniola or eastern Cuba, this could be trouble for the east coast. If she heads for Jamiaca via the southern route, she could enter the GOM, or take a northwest turn near cuba ala David and Cleo. Too early to say, but I wouldn't buy the GFS hook, line and sinker since the the genesis model showed her as a TD then fading into the SW CAribbean as a wave. With a good spin up, she may gain more latitude thatn it showing. But the good GOM folks are ready for another.....LOL! Get prepared Luis! Cheers!!

Derek Ortt · #12 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 5:15 pm

Yeah, a major faux pax on my part.

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 5:19 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Yeah, a major faux pax on my part.

Not major!! :wink:

Rainband · #14 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 5:20 pm

Steve H. wrote:Thanks Lindaloo and Cycloneye! These storms are great one's to track. Too early to tell where she may go, though the eastern Caribbean islands is a sure bet. Have a feeling this one may have a more northerly component to it. Only a gut feel as it has its head up, like she's looking WNW and has been gaining latitude. I don't think shear will be much of a problem at all, which makes me nervous. Things is if she gets as far north as near Puerto Rico and crosses through the islands north of hispaniola, she will be riding the ridge where she could intensify quite a bit. An trough will enter the picture later in the period. If she's on the north side of Hispaniola or eastern Cuba, this could be trouble for the east coast. If she heads for Jamiaca via the southern route, she could enter the GOM, or take a northwest turn near cuba ala David and Cleo. Too early to say, but I wouldn't buy the GFS hook, line and sinker since the the genesis model showed her as a TD then fading into the SW CAribbean as a wave. With a good spin up, she may gain more latitude thatn it showing. But the good GOM folks are ready for another.....LOL! Get prepared Luis! Cheers!!

I think this season has proven thus far anything is possible..to early to call but my bet would be..not an east coast threat due to the weather pattern forecast to hold into the five day!! :wink:

Scott_inVA · #15 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 11:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcgts/wtnt80.txt

UKMET model jumps on ERIKA and this is big because this model is one of the best ones around.Scroll down the link to see the UKMET plots for the system.

Not to nag, Cyclone, but the UKMET has been dreadful thus far in the season. What worries me is it's honking big time on TD 6/Erika...if it verifies, it's soup for you my friend!

Scott

wrkh99 · #16 Postby **wrkh99** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 11:40 pm

This one will be a major cane .

Models develop Erika as a hurricane south of Puerto Rico

Models develop Erika as a hurricane south of Puerto Rico

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