South FL tropical cyclone climatology: introduction/tutorial

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MiamiensisWx

South FL tropical cyclone climatology: introduction/tutorial

#1 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:35 pm

An adept and comprehensive knowledge of tropical cyclone climatology for multifarious regions of the Atlantic basin and surrounding coastlines is essential. South Florida is not an exception. There are numerous misunderstandings, spurious/false data, and scientific fallacies regarding the past history of this controversial region. The following analysis attempts to establish an accurate database, dispel myths, and vanquish uncertainties regarding the historical climatology of this region.

In the following study, south Florida is defined as the region south of Sebastian Inlet, FL and Tarpon Springs, FL on the east and west coasts, respectively. In addition to the peninsula and its barrier islands south of the aforementioned locales, south Florida includes the Monroe County (Florida) Keys as well. This definition is utilized, since Atlantic hurricane climatology, coastal/offshore topography, and SST/SSTA north of the two "break points" displays different patterns and characteristics than the south Florida region.

INTRODUCTION

From 1851 to 2007, 57 hurricanes have made landfall on the south Florida region. Here are the statistics for these tropical cyclones.

Total: 57
Category 1: 20 (35 percent)
Category 2: 14 (24.5 percent)
Category 3: 15 (26.3 percent)
Category 4: 6 (15.3 percent)
Category 5: 2 (0.35 percent)

Hurricane strikes per period:

1851-1900: 13 (22.8 percent)
1901-1950: 29 (50.9 percent)
1950-2007: 14 (24.5 percent)

Total: 57

Source: Official NHC list (HURDAT)

Only five (8.7 percent) of the 56 hurricanes featured a minimum central pressure below 940 mb at landfall, respectively. Of the five TCs, three (60 percent) struck the south Florida mainland, while two (40 percent) hit the Florida Keys.

<940 mb landfalls on south FL:

1. 1926 #6 (Cat 4) - 933 mb* at Coral Gables, Dade County, S FL mainland
2. 1928 #4 (Cat 4) - 929 mb at West Palm Beach, Palm Beach County, S FL mainland
3. 1935 #2 (Cat 5) - 892 mb at Craig Key, Monroe County, FL Keys
4. 1960 Donna (Cat 4) - 930 mb near Conch Key, Monroe County, FL Keys
5. 1992 Andrew (Cat 5) - 922 mb at Fender Point (near Homestead), Dade County, S FL mainland

Source: Official NHC list (HURDAT)

*Reanalysis (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/presentations/irr_040819.ppt)

Key points:

-The number of very intense landfalls is infinitely small. The statistics speak for themselves. Category 4 and 5 landfalls and TCs below <940 mb are incredibly rare in the TC capital of the CONUS (1851-2007).
-The majority of the landfalls were Category 1 hurricanes.
-Most of the hurricanes affected the defined area between 1901-1950.
-The most intense TCs struck from the east, east-southeast, southeast, or south-southeast. However, there was a significant quantity of Category 2/3 strikes from the south and southwest, particularly in October.


Notable landfalls from 1900-2007:

Image

South Florida region is defined by the blue boundary in this study.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Wed Aug 06, 2008 9:03 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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MiamiensisWx

#2 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:49 pm

I think this paramount research should be pinned for those who believe Category 4/5 landfalls are more frequent on the southern FL peninsula. Hopefully, I have provided an excellent historical reference...
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:50 pm

Very interesting read. Who knew I was in S. Florida! :lol: Why wasnt Charley on those maps?
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MiamiensisWx

Re:

#4 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:51 pm

fact789 wrote:Very interesting read. Who knew I was in S. Florida! Why wasnt Charley on those maps?

I honestly missed Charley via mental errors... thanks for the notice! I'll adjust the stats, accordingly.

Errors will be amended very shortly after I finish the percentages.
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MiamiensisWx

#5 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Aug 06, 2008 8:48 pm

Errors have been fixed and Charley is now included...

Comments and responses are welcome!
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Scorpion

#6 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 06, 2008 8:55 pm

Although the Cat 4/5 landfalls in South FL are pretty rare, I assume this area still has a higher incidence of them than any other area in the CONUS.
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Re: South FL tropical cyclone climatology: introduction/tutorial

#7 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 06, 2008 8:58 pm

The 1947 hurricane was a cat 4 with 155 mph winds struck northern Broward county
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MiamiensisWx

#8 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Aug 06, 2008 9:04 pm

I switched Charley and placed it on the right (correct) graphic...
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Re: South FL tropical cyclone climatology: introduction/tutorial

#9 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 06, 2008 9:11 pm

Cat 4 and 5 landfalls are rare anywhere , These stats really show south florida to be the most likely place in the U.S for one to occur.
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