Convection flare may not mean much...

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ALhurricane
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Convection flare may not mean much...

#1 Postby ALhurricane » Fri Jul 11, 2003 8:56 pm

I don't think this new round of convection means too much for Claudette. According to the latest recon fix, the convection is well to the NE of the LLC. WV imagery is showing tremendous shear and it doesn't look to get much better. I don't carry too much confidence in Claudette strengthening.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:00 pm

At least not in the short term ... I posted in the original thread I started that IMO, the convective flare-up is likely being caused by diffluent shear over the region ...

Bottom line is that nothing has really fallen in line with Claudette ...
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wxman57
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Diminishing

#3 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:10 pm

The last 2 images just before 9pm CDT indicate a significant weakening of the convective "blob" near 23N/83W. Looks like it'll dissipate in the next few hours. Could be the GFDL may be right in calling for Claudette's demise tomorrow. Lots of shear to fight.
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#4 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:27 pm

That could be a possibility wxman, but I've seen stranger things happen. I wouldn't count her just yet, can't wait to see what it looks like tomorrow sheesh! :?
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wxman57
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Nope

#5 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:40 pm

No, I'm not counting her out. I still think Claudette may re-organize tomorrow. Probably a pretty good chance of some strengthening to a "normal" storm.
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