Wave over Haiti

[tailgater]

This wave needs to be watch as it appoaches the Bahamas and Fla. striats.

[stevetampa33614]

Why?

Theres no consistent support for development. Not model or conditional.

[Dean4Storms]

I believe this wave is the wave expected in the eastern Gulf early next week that the models are show coming together with the SE US Trough and develops a closed low in the North-Central Gulf.


FXUS64 KMOB 011029
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
529 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF FL STRETCHING WEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. TO THE NORTH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WAS NOTED OVER ARKANSAS PROGGED TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN
IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. WITH DEEP
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND INCREASED
LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE NW EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING INLAND DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AFTERNOON HEATING. WENT
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER ALABAMA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT TWO INTERESTING FEATURES DURING THIS TRANSITION. ONE IS
AN MID/UPPER EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
UNDER THE APEX OF THE WAVE. WILL KEEP SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON
SAT/SUN/MON AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST. INLAND AREAS
WILL HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE
EXPECT ISOLATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH DOMINATING THE
PICTURE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. /22

[tailgater]

Cute little eddy.

Use this site and click Sw part of Haiti, 15 frame loop(High) then speed it up a little. Time sensitive!

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html