Are the NHC shaded regions of development probability really helping and accurate? Do they need to be modified? I thought this would be a good debate. Here are some examples:
94L (Dolly) -- NHC kept in in a code red for nearly 1000 miles before it developed
97L (did not develop) - NHC gave it an orange whilst over Africa (Senegal) and it did not develop
98L (probably a TD/TS) - NHC gave it a yellow and it ended up being a strong candidate for a TD/TS for a brief period of time
Then there are many areas they will mark as yellow which look like about 0-5% probability of development. For example a swirl of clouds with light showers could get marked even though we know it won't develop. What is the point of shading it and drawing attention?
What do you think about the shaded regions? Do you like them, not like them? I think this will spring an interesting debate while there is a lull in the season.
Shaded Regions of Development Probability?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, Cpv17, CycloysisNegative, Google [Bot], Heretoserve, Hurricane2022, Hurricaneman, Hypercane_Kyle, Orlando_wx, riapal, Steve H., Sunnydays, TampaWxLurker and 86 guests