OK...let me go off on the NHC for a bit

[Air Force Met]

The 2 pm position is an abomination. To prove this...do two things:
Go to the GHCC site: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

then...
1) open two windows with the GHCC. Let the first be a still shot...high res and centered on the yuck. Use your cursor to determine the lat/long of where they say the center is....21.9 / 88.0 They place it off the northern tip.

2) Open another high res loop. What do you see in that area? Low level cu streaking west. The LLC is clearly visible 60 miles to the WSW. There are ese winds south of the NHC center in the cu field...and ese winds at 20 kts south of the center according to recon. These things make it impossible for a low to be there.

Why is this important? Initialization. Garbage into a model gives garbage out. Not only are they 60 miles off with the position...they say it is moving NW at 12. Please. For one thing...the center is not there...and another...it is moving wsw...around the yuck so it should be initialized as stationary or drifting...not moving at 12.

Sorry to rant. They did the same thing with Allison. They placed the center SE of GLS when it was clearly visible on the vis shots south of Freeport. They then had to play catch up by moving it WNW at 15 to SSE of GLS...then they got it right on the 3rd advisory.

They really tick me off sometimes.