After a fairly rapid intensification to near hurricane (probably didnt reach hurricane and those winds from earlier were likely transient) it has weakened at a very rapid pace. The pressure is likely above the 993 indicated in the latest update. In addition, outflow boundaries continue to be evident.
As for landfalls, looks like east of Texas is begining to look somewhat in the clear; though not entirely. Globals are in fairly good agreement of a ridge building back in after about 48-72 hours and even insist on a SW turn before landfall. Therefore, it appears as if the threat is starting to shape up as a threat to mainland Mexico and Texas at the present time
What an interesting storm
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cycloneye
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Too early to say Derek about where exactly it will make landfall because of the history of Claudette as it has done whatever she wants.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 10, 2003 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt
Intensity wise, yes. Track wise, Claudette has actually been fairly well behaved. This turn to the WNW to NW was anticipated, though just slightly north of the initial projections. That being said, the forecast errors do seem to be less than the 10-year averages.
Regarding the ridge, WV loops of the USA do show that the initial trough may miss this system as the globals indicate. However, it may be far enough north to get Texas. Louisiana is not completely clear yet; thus, residents there still need to closely monitor the progress of the system
As an aside, I am hoping that tomorrow's G-IV is a go so I can look at some of the data regarding moisture content of the atmosphere and see how, if at all, that played a role in the intensity changes
Regarding the ridge, WV loops of the USA do show that the initial trough may miss this system as the globals indicate. However, it may be far enough north to get Texas. Louisiana is not completely clear yet; thus, residents there still need to closely monitor the progress of the system
As an aside, I am hoping that tomorrow's G-IV is a go so I can look at some of the data regarding moisture content of the atmosphere and see how, if at all, that played a role in the intensity changes
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Rainband
Trusting models is a dangerous propisition and with claudette even more so..Glad I am not an "official forecaster"Derek Ortt wrote:Intensity wise, yes. Track wise, Claudette has actually been fairly well behaved. This turn to the WNW to NW was anticipated, though just slightly north of the initial projections. That being said, the forecast errors do seem to be less than the 10-year averages.
Regarding the ridge, WV loops of the USA do show that the initial trough may miss this system as the globals indicate. However, it may be far enough north to get Texas. Louisiana is not completely clear yet; thus, residents there still need to closely monitor the progress of the system
As an aside, I am hoping that tomorrow's G-IV is a go so I can look at some of the data regarding moisture content of the atmosphere and see how, if at all, that played a role in the intensity changes
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