The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Tropical storm Bertha
2:30am pst/5:30am est
7-4-2008
Winds 50 mph
Pressure 1002 millibars
Movement west-northwest at 14 knots
Location 14.4/28.7
Bertha moving west-northwestward away from the cape verdes.
Bertha's convection is offset just to the northeast of the center, but overall this is a very well organized cyclone, with nice banding features. Advanced Cimss shows 3.1t, and sab shown 3.0 as of this morning. So the winds are being set at 45 knots. Also latest satellite images show that the convection has rebuilt over the LLC, so some strengthen is forecasted.
A rare favorable early July pattern has formed over the Eastern Atlantic ocean; this has allowed for the formation of a cyclone, because the Shear levels are much below normal, with low SAL, and warmer water off the cape verdes. All these factors made this super rare first in recorded history a chance to form. Latest shear maps show a "anticyclone" centered to the southeast of the cyclone, with 10-12 knot shear over the cyclone it's self. In fact the flow around the cyclone southly and southwestly around the top end of it, could be effectly blowing the covection to the northeast of the LLC. This is also shown by latest satellite and 85h data out of NRL. To its west shear levels look to be favorable in the near future for the system over the central Atlatnic. But this system will likely ahve to deal with cool sst's with in the next 24-36 hours as it moves into slightly cooler waters of 74-75F; this should work against strengthing. Also with the weakness upper level shear could become a problem. But if the weakness don't form not unlike Gfs,CMC,Hwrf,UKMEt,ECMWF with the more westward track, then the system could strengthen more once it moves into the warmer central and western Atlatnic. But on the other hand the tutt could be waiting for it "if" it is still sitting around 60 west when it gets there. But anyways that is for another day all together, because tutts are amazely hard to forecast.
The Gfdl shows a west-northwest at near 285-290 degree's during the next 24-36 hours, and then showing a strengthing subtropical Azores high after 36-60 hours and a move to the west. A system moves to its north around 66-72 hours that is expected to weaken it enough to allow it to head more west-northwest. Around 4 days Gfdl shows this weakness splitting the high into two parts, so the system starts moving into weakness. Latest Gfs don't develop this weakness as strongly and so don't split the high enough to allow for the cyclone to be sucked into it around 4-5 day time frame. That is why it moves more westward. But a system moving into the Canada marinetimes around 136-148 hours is expected to do so. Hwrf model also shows near that same line of thinking. Following in the back is the CMC that shows about the same thing for the first 120 hours. We will think a west-northwest track for the next 24-36 hours; followed by a more westward track through 72 hours. We will watch for any weakness afterwards very closely.
Forecast
0 45 knots 14.4/28.5
6 50 knots 14.6/29.1
12 50 knots 15.4/31.2
24 55 knots 15.8/33.2
36 55 knots 16.4/36.7
48 55 knots 16.6/40.2
72 55 knots 17.4/47.1
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Personal forecast On Bertha!
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
Tropical storm Bertha
4pm pst/7pm est
7-5-2008
forecast 2#
Winds 50 knots
Pressure 999 millibars
movement 18 knots
location 16.5/39.8
Bertha racing westward and acrossing into the centeral Atlantic.
Sab shows 3.0, while advance cimss shows around 3.4t, so around 45-50 knots. A quickscat a few days ago shown a small area of 50 knot+ winds, so it's very likely the cyclone is around 50 knots. Berttha has been over sub 26c water temperatures for the last 24-36 hours; it is now expected to move into warmer 76-77 degree supportive waters tonight and into sunday as it crosses 40 west. This is shown by latest sst surface "data". Which show water temperature increaseing at a degree per day more or less. The cyclone has also been under southwestly shear of around 15-20 knots throughout the last 24 hours, with some signs of even some "easly" wind shear, because of the fast forward speed of the cyclone of around 17-18 knots.
The tutt is centered near 58-60 west and around 30 north. The shear maps show that the tutt is moving northward out of the area with shear decreasing across the cyclones expected path of 10-20 knots. Also ship shows only 15-20 knot shear once the cyclone reaches this area, to be noted the ship has a hard time like all models forecasting shear. So it could easly be under 10 knots for our cyclone. This tutt is shown moving north-northeastward in water vapor; with one ull at 35/55 and the other at 27/57. Also to be noted is the deep area of dry air to its west. For the longer range we watch the trough coming off the east coast, this should be the weakness we watch as it moves to the north side of the subtropical high pressure. This is the big question, doe's it or doe's it not split the subtropical high to allow the cyclone to move out to sea.
The Gfs don't bring the system to 20 north intill 50 west. But then it shows the weakness split the subtropical ridge enough for the system to turn west-northwest or northwest after 72 hours. This is followed by a restrengthing of the ridge. The Gfdl supports it, but bombs the system, which moves the system northwestward at the end of the forecast period. Cmc supports it to. But like we have seen the last few days, the subtropical ridge is likely shown to weak. Also we don't expect the system to become a a very strong cyclone, because we don't expect the tutt to completly move out of the way. We forecast a westward or a stair step like track throughout the next 36-48 hours, followed by a west-northwest track afterwards to 72 hours.
As for strength, we don't feel that the system will be very close to hurricane strength, but we also feel that the dry air and tutt shear once within 50 west in 48 hours, will likely become less favorable. After a window around 24-36 hours for strengthing. But we will watch this closely as we do expect a new trough at the end of the forecast period.
Forecast
0 50 knots 16.5/39.8
6 50 knots 16.6/41.7
12 50 knots 16.9/42.9
24 55 knots 17.3/45.7
36 60 knots 17.9/50.2
48 60 knots 18.5/53.6
72 60 knots 20.9/59.4
96 60 knots 23.9/65.5
120 65 knots 25.9/69.5
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
4pm pst/7pm est
7-5-2008
forecast 2#
Winds 50 knots
Pressure 999 millibars
movement 18 knots
location 16.5/39.8
Bertha racing westward and acrossing into the centeral Atlantic.
Sab shows 3.0, while advance cimss shows around 3.4t, so around 45-50 knots. A quickscat a few days ago shown a small area of 50 knot+ winds, so it's very likely the cyclone is around 50 knots. Berttha has been over sub 26c water temperatures for the last 24-36 hours; it is now expected to move into warmer 76-77 degree supportive waters tonight and into sunday as it crosses 40 west. This is shown by latest sst surface "data". Which show water temperature increaseing at a degree per day more or less. The cyclone has also been under southwestly shear of around 15-20 knots throughout the last 24 hours, with some signs of even some "easly" wind shear, because of the fast forward speed of the cyclone of around 17-18 knots.
The tutt is centered near 58-60 west and around 30 north. The shear maps show that the tutt is moving northward out of the area with shear decreasing across the cyclones expected path of 10-20 knots. Also ship shows only 15-20 knot shear once the cyclone reaches this area, to be noted the ship has a hard time like all models forecasting shear. So it could easly be under 10 knots for our cyclone. This tutt is shown moving north-northeastward in water vapor; with one ull at 35/55 and the other at 27/57. Also to be noted is the deep area of dry air to its west. For the longer range we watch the trough coming off the east coast, this should be the weakness we watch as it moves to the north side of the subtropical high pressure. This is the big question, doe's it or doe's it not split the subtropical high to allow the cyclone to move out to sea.
The Gfs don't bring the system to 20 north intill 50 west. But then it shows the weakness split the subtropical ridge enough for the system to turn west-northwest or northwest after 72 hours. This is followed by a restrengthing of the ridge. The Gfdl supports it, but bombs the system, which moves the system northwestward at the end of the forecast period. Cmc supports it to. But like we have seen the last few days, the subtropical ridge is likely shown to weak. Also we don't expect the system to become a a very strong cyclone, because we don't expect the tutt to completly move out of the way. We forecast a westward or a stair step like track throughout the next 36-48 hours, followed by a west-northwest track afterwards to 72 hours.
As for strength, we don't feel that the system will be very close to hurricane strength, but we also feel that the dry air and tutt shear once within 50 west in 48 hours, will likely become less favorable. After a window around 24-36 hours for strengthing. But we will watch this closely as we do expect a new trough at the end of the forecast period.
Forecast
0 50 knots 16.5/39.8
6 50 knots 16.6/41.7
12 50 knots 16.9/42.9
24 55 knots 17.3/45.7
36 60 knots 17.9/50.2
48 60 knots 18.5/53.6
72 60 knots 20.9/59.4
96 60 knots 23.9/65.5
120 65 knots 25.9/69.5
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
Tropical storm Bertha
12am pst/3am est
7-6-2008
winds 50 knots
pressure 999 millibars
movement west at 18 knots
location 17/42.2
Bertha has not strengthen over the last 6 hours, but has moved westward, with strong shear blowing the convection to the north of the center. Current t numbers out of sab is still 3.0...So winds will remind the same as earlier.
Track has a lot to do with how strong Bertha gets and how strong the trough gets. The Gfdl 00z shows it becoming a cat2 hurricane and turns it due north, while the latest Ukmet show it as a possible open wave. The cmc shows a soild ridge intill around 65 west, and then it shows the system strengthing and the "east" coast trough picking it up and turning it northward. The Gfs shows a "weakness" around 58 west/40 north splitting the ridge enough to draw it west-northwestward or even northwestward around 60-84 hours. This sets the table for the ridge not to develop nearly as well to its north; which if it where to form the trough like it has been would likely recurve the cyclone quickly out to sea. But the 00z shows that trough pulling out fast and allowing a "high" to its north around 144-166 hours. So after 72 hours we have a 'major forecast problem', models are spreaded big time in moving back and forth, infact the latest 00z CMC,GFS models have shifted back westward from the earlier trend to the north as of the last two runs.
The latest movement of the cyclone appears to be near 275 degree's or westward. The latest microwave/85h data shown that the LLC was near 17.0/41.5, but this was near 5 hours ago. The latest satellite shows the LLC has in fact moved westward in is around 17 north/41.2 at the time. The system is also taking strong southwestly shear of 10-15 knots , that is blowing the convection to the north of the LLC. This Ull is currently being caused by a weak ULL to its south that has been tracking pretty much with it for the last 24-36 hours. As for the tutt, mainlly it is moving northward, but a small ull around 28/55 is sliding slowly east-southeastward based on water vapor. If this Ull remains there, it could even bring more shear for the cyclone to deal with during the next 24-36 hours. In fact shear maps show 5-10 knot increases in the cyclones path, and also increases over the cyclone. Overall this ULL is at the upper levels near 500 mbs or above, so it is not a "weakness" for the cyclone to track in, unless there is a lower level break in the high. This should mean a weaker cyclone over the next 24-36 hours, so a more westward track.
The trough over the east coast is still inland, with a reenforcement coming down the plains, that could be in place with in 72-96 hours. We are thinking that the trough maybe strong enough to turn it more northward after 108-120, as this trough weakens the ridge. But if the trough pulls out faster like the 00z gfs shows, then the cyclone could find its self under a newly devleoping ridge. So pretty much a more westward throughout the next 96 hours, but then a more northward track.
forecast
0 50 knots 17/42.2
6 50 knots 17.4/43.8
12 50 knots 17.9/45.2
24 55 knots 18.7/47.8
36 55 knots 19.4/50.2
48 60 knots 20.2/54.8
72 55 knots 21.4/59.7
96 60 knots 24.8/65.2
120 65 knots 26.7/72.3
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
12am pst/3am est
7-6-2008
winds 50 knots
pressure 999 millibars
movement west at 18 knots
location 17/42.2
Bertha has not strengthen over the last 6 hours, but has moved westward, with strong shear blowing the convection to the north of the center. Current t numbers out of sab is still 3.0...So winds will remind the same as earlier.
Track has a lot to do with how strong Bertha gets and how strong the trough gets. The Gfdl 00z shows it becoming a cat2 hurricane and turns it due north, while the latest Ukmet show it as a possible open wave. The cmc shows a soild ridge intill around 65 west, and then it shows the system strengthing and the "east" coast trough picking it up and turning it northward. The Gfs shows a "weakness" around 58 west/40 north splitting the ridge enough to draw it west-northwestward or even northwestward around 60-84 hours. This sets the table for the ridge not to develop nearly as well to its north; which if it where to form the trough like it has been would likely recurve the cyclone quickly out to sea. But the 00z shows that trough pulling out fast and allowing a "high" to its north around 144-166 hours. So after 72 hours we have a 'major forecast problem', models are spreaded big time in moving back and forth, infact the latest 00z CMC,GFS models have shifted back westward from the earlier trend to the north as of the last two runs.
The latest movement of the cyclone appears to be near 275 degree's or westward. The latest microwave/85h data shown that the LLC was near 17.0/41.5, but this was near 5 hours ago. The latest satellite shows the LLC has in fact moved westward in is around 17 north/41.2 at the time. The system is also taking strong southwestly shear of 10-15 knots , that is blowing the convection to the north of the LLC. This Ull is currently being caused by a weak ULL to its south that has been tracking pretty much with it for the last 24-36 hours. As for the tutt, mainlly it is moving northward, but a small ull around 28/55 is sliding slowly east-southeastward based on water vapor. If this Ull remains there, it could even bring more shear for the cyclone to deal with during the next 24-36 hours. In fact shear maps show 5-10 knot increases in the cyclones path, and also increases over the cyclone. Overall this ULL is at the upper levels near 500 mbs or above, so it is not a "weakness" for the cyclone to track in, unless there is a lower level break in the high. This should mean a weaker cyclone over the next 24-36 hours, so a more westward track.
The trough over the east coast is still inland, with a reenforcement coming down the plains, that could be in place with in 72-96 hours. We are thinking that the trough maybe strong enough to turn it more northward after 108-120, as this trough weakens the ridge. But if the trough pulls out faster like the 00z gfs shows, then the cyclone could find its self under a newly devleoping ridge. So pretty much a more westward throughout the next 96 hours, but then a more northward track.
forecast
0 50 knots 17/42.2
6 50 knots 17.4/43.8
12 50 knots 17.9/45.2
24 55 knots 18.7/47.8
36 55 knots 19.4/50.2
48 60 knots 20.2/54.8
72 55 knots 21.4/59.7
96 60 knots 24.8/65.2
120 65 knots 26.7/72.3
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
Tropical storm Bertha
2pm pst/5pm est
7-6-2008
Winds 65 mph
pressure 995 millibar "est"
movement west near 275 at 18 knots
location 18.2/46.7
Bertha strengthing and moving westward.
The last 6 hours has shown that Bertha has want from a sheared system to a system that has wraped around "its" inner core. Nice outflow out of most quads, with 85h data as of a few hours ago, showing a open eye developing. Even visible has hinted at this over the last few hours, this feature is at 18.3/46.6.
The tutt appears to be moving northward as of the last few hours, in fact it has turned in a southwest to northeastward set up that "could" allow for a outflow channel from the northern quad. This is already being shown from the strengthing of the tropical cyclone, but overall shear maps out of cimss still show 10-12 knots of southwestly shear. So we believe that the lower level LLC is slightly displaced slightly south of the eye feature oon the visible.
The east coast trough is digging down based on water vapor images, and another reeenforcement is coming east-southeastward from the plains near 40/105. This should be enough weakness to turn it northwestward around 96-120 hour time period. The first small weakness goe's to its north around 40-48 hours, this should help to move it north of 20 north, followed by the high rebuilding to its north. But the main reenforcement reaches the east coast around 72-84 hours; this trough looks very very strong for this time of the year, so it will have no problem picking this system up and recurving it if this happens the way the models forecast it. The Gfs trys to reform the ridge to the north and tripes the cyclone and turns it back westward or west-northwestward. As it shown with the 00z last night...12z Cmc is way farther south with south of 20 all the way to the islands. But it also shows our trough, and turns it northwestward near 108-120 hours. It not unlike the Gfs shows a ridge forming to its north, with the trough pulling out. This seems hard to believe if the trough is really this strong; we don't believe this trough will be any where near as strong as the models forecast, that is a very tricky forecast. The Gfdl shows north of 20 at 53 west. Our forecast is on the core of the hurricane models, and brings in the thinking of the gfs, cmc.
I'm going to go with north of 20 at 55 west, with a west-northwest track for the next 48-60 hours. The trough off the east coast should be around 84-96 hours effecting the cyclone. This in we now expect the environment to be favorable for strengthing has made us shift our 96-120 hour forecast to the right. We will forecast this system to become a hurricane by tomarrow morning, with a chance of becoming a 75 knot hurricane by 36-48 hours. Afterwards we will forecast slow strengthing for now.
forecast
0 18.1/46.7 55 knots
6 18.3/48.5 60 knots
12 18.9/50.4 65 knots
24 19.3/53.4 70 knots
36 19.9/58.2 75 knots
48 20.5/60.3 75 knots
72 23.5/64.2 80 knots
96 26.4/67.8 80 knots
120 28.2/71.5 85 knots
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
2pm pst/5pm est
7-6-2008
Winds 65 mph
pressure 995 millibar "est"
movement west near 275 at 18 knots
location 18.2/46.7
Bertha strengthing and moving westward.
The last 6 hours has shown that Bertha has want from a sheared system to a system that has wraped around "its" inner core. Nice outflow out of most quads, with 85h data as of a few hours ago, showing a open eye developing. Even visible has hinted at this over the last few hours, this feature is at 18.3/46.6.
The tutt appears to be moving northward as of the last few hours, in fact it has turned in a southwest to northeastward set up that "could" allow for a outflow channel from the northern quad. This is already being shown from the strengthing of the tropical cyclone, but overall shear maps out of cimss still show 10-12 knots of southwestly shear. So we believe that the lower level LLC is slightly displaced slightly south of the eye feature oon the visible.
The east coast trough is digging down based on water vapor images, and another reeenforcement is coming east-southeastward from the plains near 40/105. This should be enough weakness to turn it northwestward around 96-120 hour time period. The first small weakness goe's to its north around 40-48 hours, this should help to move it north of 20 north, followed by the high rebuilding to its north. But the main reenforcement reaches the east coast around 72-84 hours; this trough looks very very strong for this time of the year, so it will have no problem picking this system up and recurving it if this happens the way the models forecast it. The Gfs trys to reform the ridge to the north and tripes the cyclone and turns it back westward or west-northwestward. As it shown with the 00z last night...12z Cmc is way farther south with south of 20 all the way to the islands. But it also shows our trough, and turns it northwestward near 108-120 hours. It not unlike the Gfs shows a ridge forming to its north, with the trough pulling out. This seems hard to believe if the trough is really this strong; we don't believe this trough will be any where near as strong as the models forecast, that is a very tricky forecast. The Gfdl shows north of 20 at 53 west. Our forecast is on the core of the hurricane models, and brings in the thinking of the gfs, cmc.
I'm going to go with north of 20 at 55 west, with a west-northwest track for the next 48-60 hours. The trough off the east coast should be around 84-96 hours effecting the cyclone. This in we now expect the environment to be favorable for strengthing has made us shift our 96-120 hour forecast to the right. We will forecast this system to become a hurricane by tomarrow morning, with a chance of becoming a 75 knot hurricane by 36-48 hours. Afterwards we will forecast slow strengthing for now.
forecast
0 18.1/46.7 55 knots
6 18.3/48.5 60 knots
12 18.9/50.4 65 knots
24 19.3/53.4 70 knots
36 19.9/58.2 75 knots
48 20.5/60.3 75 knots
72 23.5/64.2 80 knots
96 26.4/67.8 80 knots
120 28.2/71.5 85 knots
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
Hurricane Bertha
7-9-2008
2am pst
winds 65 knots
pressure 985 millibars est
movement northwest at 8 knots
location 23.4/56.5
Bertha moving northwestward near 300 degree's over the Atlatnic ocean...
This morning bertha is showing slight appearances of some "strengthing" with outflow becoming better organized, in fact over the last few frames some reds have reform near the cyclones center. Shear levels are forecasted to remain low over the next 24-36 hours, also water temperatures should also remain near 26-27c over the time frame. So some restrengthen to 85 knots is being forecasted by 24-36 hours....
After yesterdays exciting IRC of Bertha taking it up near 105 knots, with some data suggesting closer to 110 knots. The cyclone has weaken because of wind shear once more. In fact this makes Bertha the third strongest tropical cyclone in July in history after Emily and Dennis
The gfdl model has done a very good job with Bertha so far. So we will use it strongly in our track forecast...But even it is forecasting Bertha to go past 61 west by 48 hours. It is also forecasting a peak strength near 103 knots also...The Gfs shows the split in the subtropical ridge closing back up by 12 hours and tracking the cyclone more west-northwestward after 12-36 hours. At 72 hours it shows the second trough moving to the north weaking the ridge...But it forecasts enough ridging to keep the cyclone to the south through out 120 hours. Intil a third deep trough forms off the east coast and pushs the cyclone off. Cmc agree's with it pretty much. To back this up the core of the hurricane models forecast a west-northwest track throughout the next 24-36 hours, moving the cyclone west of 60 west. We will forecast east of the "core" with how our knowledge of recurving systems at 25+ lat.
forecast
0 23.4/56.5 65 knots
6 23.8/57.2 70 knots
12 24.4/57.9 75 knots
24 24.7/58.7 80 knots
36 25.4/59.4 85 knots
48 25.8/60.4 85 knots
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
7-9-2008
2am pst
winds 65 knots
pressure 985 millibars est
movement northwest at 8 knots
location 23.4/56.5
Bertha moving northwestward near 300 degree's over the Atlatnic ocean...
This morning bertha is showing slight appearances of some "strengthing" with outflow becoming better organized, in fact over the last few frames some reds have reform near the cyclones center. Shear levels are forecasted to remain low over the next 24-36 hours, also water temperatures should also remain near 26-27c over the time frame. So some restrengthen to 85 knots is being forecasted by 24-36 hours....
After yesterdays exciting IRC of Bertha taking it up near 105 knots, with some data suggesting closer to 110 knots. The cyclone has weaken because of wind shear once more. In fact this makes Bertha the third strongest tropical cyclone in July in history after Emily and Dennis
The gfdl model has done a very good job with Bertha so far. So we will use it strongly in our track forecast...But even it is forecasting Bertha to go past 61 west by 48 hours. It is also forecasting a peak strength near 103 knots also...The Gfs shows the split in the subtropical ridge closing back up by 12 hours and tracking the cyclone more west-northwestward after 12-36 hours. At 72 hours it shows the second trough moving to the north weaking the ridge...But it forecasts enough ridging to keep the cyclone to the south through out 120 hours. Intil a third deep trough forms off the east coast and pushs the cyclone off. Cmc agree's with it pretty much. To back this up the core of the hurricane models forecast a west-northwest track throughout the next 24-36 hours, moving the cyclone west of 60 west. We will forecast east of the "core" with how our knowledge of recurving systems at 25+ lat.
forecast
0 23.4/56.5 65 knots
6 23.8/57.2 70 knots
12 24.4/57.9 75 knots
24 24.7/58.7 80 knots
36 25.4/59.4 85 knots
48 25.8/60.4 85 knots
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
Hurricane Bertha
12am pst
7-10-2008
Winds 105 mph
Pressure 955 millibars
movement Northwest at 305 degree's at 8 knots
Location 26.7/59.1
Cat2 Bertha is a possible threat to Bermuda.
After strengthing into a strong cat2 again today, Bertha appears to be showing signs of a "EWRC" with the eye becoming very small, with some dry air moving into the system with 10 knots of midlevel shear. So the system appears to be weaking...Sab was still 5.0 as of 2345UTC or 85-90 knots, so we wish to keep that wind for this forecast cycle. IR satellite shows the eye is right now 26.7/59.1, with well organized outflow out of the northern quad of the cyclone. We feel that the system should have fairly "warm" waters of 26-27c over the next 24-36 hours, but once the system moves past 30 north, the sst's go down, unless the system moves into the Gulf stream. As some of the "hurricane" models are hinting towards. The ship shows "low" upper level shear throughout the next 36-48 hours, followed by increase afterwards.
The latest Gfs has shifted far westward, we are forecasting the cyclone to shift to the left from last night, also because the hurricane models have done so. This is caused by a stronger high to the north for the next 48-60 hours, followed by a stronger trough moving off the east coast, helping to push the system in between them. We are not ready to go as for west as the new gfs, but down the middle or east side of the hurricane models thought processes seems to be a safe bet. That is until a trend develops.
As for strength we forecast the system to weaken down to a 75 knot hurricane today, as dry air moves into the system, also because of a possible EWRC. But we also expect another possibe strengthing Friday morning and into Saturday....So we will reflact that in our forecast.
Forecast
0 26.7/59.1 90 knots
6 27.3/59.5 85 knots
12 27.8/59.9 75 knots
24 28.3/60.4 80 knots
36 28.6/61.5 85 knots
48 29.1/63.2 85 knots
72 30.5/64.4 70 knots
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
12am pst
7-10-2008
Winds 105 mph
Pressure 955 millibars
movement Northwest at 305 degree's at 8 knots
Location 26.7/59.1
Cat2 Bertha is a possible threat to Bermuda.
After strengthing into a strong cat2 again today, Bertha appears to be showing signs of a "EWRC" with the eye becoming very small, with some dry air moving into the system with 10 knots of midlevel shear. So the system appears to be weaking...Sab was still 5.0 as of 2345UTC or 85-90 knots, so we wish to keep that wind for this forecast cycle. IR satellite shows the eye is right now 26.7/59.1, with well organized outflow out of the northern quad of the cyclone. We feel that the system should have fairly "warm" waters of 26-27c over the next 24-36 hours, but once the system moves past 30 north, the sst's go down, unless the system moves into the Gulf stream. As some of the "hurricane" models are hinting towards. The ship shows "low" upper level shear throughout the next 36-48 hours, followed by increase afterwards.
The latest Gfs has shifted far westward, we are forecasting the cyclone to shift to the left from last night, also because the hurricane models have done so. This is caused by a stronger high to the north for the next 48-60 hours, followed by a stronger trough moving off the east coast, helping to push the system in between them. We are not ready to go as for west as the new gfs, but down the middle or east side of the hurricane models thought processes seems to be a safe bet. That is until a trend develops.
As for strength we forecast the system to weaken down to a 75 knot hurricane today, as dry air moves into the system, also because of a possible EWRC. But we also expect another possibe strengthing Friday morning and into Saturday....So we will reflact that in our forecast.
Forecast
0 26.7/59.1 90 knots
6 27.3/59.5 85 knots
12 27.8/59.9 75 knots
24 28.3/60.4 80 knots
36 28.6/61.5 85 knots
48 29.1/63.2 85 knots
72 30.5/64.4 70 knots
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
matt what is your logic in hours 24-48 with having the storm bend even more WNW based on your forecast positions. you kind of move it NW for first 24 hours then bend WNW, how come
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chadtm80
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
My logic is that with in the time frame from 24-48 hours that the system has a weak high build to its north, but as the trough sets up off the east coast it pushs it northward. But anyways it is looking less likely today that it will move to 65 west, but closer to 63-64 west.
Chad, I'm sorry, I try my best with my forecast and I hope you like them. I will try to remember to always put the thing on the top.
Chad, I'm sorry, I try my best with my forecast and I hope you like them. I will try to remember to always put the thing on the top.
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Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
thanks matt looks to me like the northern motion has slowed of late, but would need a few more frames to tell for sure.
My biggest surprise is no one is talking about upwelling which would certainly inhibit this storm if the motion/speed is anything like the models suggest.
My biggest surprise is no one is talking about upwelling which would certainly inhibit this storm if the motion/speed is anything like the models suggest.
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americanrebel
What is the possibility of Bertha getting caught in the trough on the East Coast and start moving SW? I know that none of the models predict this, but as we all know that some storms just don't want to do what the models say. I hope for everybody that she starts her North and North East run soon and goes out to sea. But all the models say that Bertha will be around for at least another week if not longer. This could actually do a lot of damage to Bermuda with her waves destroying the beaches and eroding away the coastline. Storms like this even when not making landfall, but moving very slowly and kicking up the surf can cause an large amount of damage.
I think we have the first storm name to be retired for 2008. Just my humble opinion. She is the storm to set the record for the furthest out storm to form in July and could do millions in damage for both Bermuda and the shipping industry.
I think we have the first storm name to be retired for 2008. Just my humble opinion. She is the storm to set the record for the furthest out storm to form in July and could do millions in damage for both Bermuda and the shipping industry.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Hurricane Bertha
3am pst/6am est
7-11-2008
winds 85 mph
pressure 979 millibars est
movement north-northwestard 9 knots
location 27.8/61.6
Bertha a threat to Bermuda, as the system is going through a EWRC.
The center of Bertha(core of the innereye appears to be near 27.8 north/61.6 west...With microwave satellite images showing that there is a EWRC that is going on with Bertha; the outter eyewall is 60 nmi wide as of right now, this is shown on IR satellite by a large band. Because of the large eye wall that has developed winds to hurricane force can be found likely outwards much farther then what would of been 24-36 hours ago, when the system had a smaller eye. So Bermuda needs to watch this system very closely. Another thing to note is the latest data out of Amsub, as of three hours ago shown that the new eye has taken over, but Amsub is not as "defined" as the other data, also IR still shows a inner "core". Sab is back up to 4.5/4.5 or around 75 knots, likely because the system is becoming more organized with the outtereye. So there is some chance of restrengthing to around 80-85 knots during the next 12-24 hours, after that the cyclone should find its self being sheared by the first "weakness" as it goe's by to the north.
The first weakness is going by to its north already, also it has weaken the subtropical ridge to the north enough to turn the cyclone toward 320-325 degree's north, also a speed up in forward speed is starting to occur. There is some chance that the cyclone could be pulled northwestward to near 62.5 west as the trough forces it up its southeast quad against the high to the east. A second reenforcement moving over the Great lakes should be the kicker that kicks the cyclone and recurves the system. So we expect the cyclone to come with in 60-70 nmi of Bermuda, then a recurve around 24-36 hours. This is a shift eastward, because of the set up that is shown on water vapor and surface data. The Gfdl shows a quick northwest followed by a east-northeast and back northward throughout the next the next 120 hours. The Gfdl overall has done a good job with the cyclone, besides last nights little trick of pulling it into Canada, so we feel that with the current set up; that it is pretty good. The Gfs 00z shows a even more east track, this is because the trough it thinks will miss the system forcing the cyclone east. By the end of the forecast period it even builds a ridge to its north. We will forecast it to recurve, because the trough appears to be strong enough. We also have learned a a important thing to not go based on one model run, but by trends, and set-up, and history of storms before it.
forecast
0 27.8/61.6 75 knots
6 28.4/61.9 80 knots
12 28.9/62.1 85 knots
24 30.5/61.2 75 knots
36 32.4/59.7 55 knots
48 33.5/59.3 45 knots
72 34.3/57.5 45 knots extratropical
The way the set up is looking, no threat at all towards Canada. Also the models want to stall it in move it eastward, and then trap it under a new high. Damn, if this trough doe's not pick it up like I expect, then this could be around.
Hurricane Bertha
3am pst/6am est
7-11-2008
winds 85 mph
pressure 979 millibars est
movement north-northwestard 9 knots
location 27.8/61.6
Bertha a threat to Bermuda, as the system is going through a EWRC.
The center of Bertha(core of the innereye appears to be near 27.8 north/61.6 west...With microwave satellite images showing that there is a EWRC that is going on with Bertha; the outter eyewall is 60 nmi wide as of right now, this is shown on IR satellite by a large band. Because of the large eye wall that has developed winds to hurricane force can be found likely outwards much farther then what would of been 24-36 hours ago, when the system had a smaller eye. So Bermuda needs to watch this system very closely. Another thing to note is the latest data out of Amsub, as of three hours ago shown that the new eye has taken over, but Amsub is not as "defined" as the other data, also IR still shows a inner "core". Sab is back up to 4.5/4.5 or around 75 knots, likely because the system is becoming more organized with the outtereye. So there is some chance of restrengthing to around 80-85 knots during the next 12-24 hours, after that the cyclone should find its self being sheared by the first "weakness" as it goe's by to the north.
The first weakness is going by to its north already, also it has weaken the subtropical ridge to the north enough to turn the cyclone toward 320-325 degree's north, also a speed up in forward speed is starting to occur. There is some chance that the cyclone could be pulled northwestward to near 62.5 west as the trough forces it up its southeast quad against the high to the east. A second reenforcement moving over the Great lakes should be the kicker that kicks the cyclone and recurves the system. So we expect the cyclone to come with in 60-70 nmi of Bermuda, then a recurve around 24-36 hours. This is a shift eastward, because of the set up that is shown on water vapor and surface data. The Gfdl shows a quick northwest followed by a east-northeast and back northward throughout the next the next 120 hours. The Gfdl overall has done a good job with the cyclone, besides last nights little trick of pulling it into Canada, so we feel that with the current set up; that it is pretty good. The Gfs 00z shows a even more east track, this is because the trough it thinks will miss the system forcing the cyclone east. By the end of the forecast period it even builds a ridge to its north. We will forecast it to recurve, because the trough appears to be strong enough. We also have learned a a important thing to not go based on one model run, but by trends, and set-up, and history of storms before it.
forecast
0 27.8/61.6 75 knots
6 28.4/61.9 80 knots
12 28.9/62.1 85 knots
24 30.5/61.2 75 knots
36 32.4/59.7 55 knots
48 33.5/59.3 45 knots
72 34.3/57.5 45 knots extratropical
The way the set up is looking, no threat at all towards Canada. Also the models want to stall it in move it eastward, and then trap it under a new high. Damn, if this trough doe's not pick it up like I expect, then this could be around.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Hurricane Bertha
2am pst/5am est
7-12-2008
winds 100 mph
pressure 974 millibars
movement north-northwestward at 3 knots
location 29.6/62.7
Bertha restrengthens to a cat2 as it is southeast of Bermuda.
The last recon found that Bertha had a flight level wind of 99 knots at 10 seconds, with 94 knots at 30 seconds. With the 99 knots that supports 100 mph with the cyclone...Overall over the last few satellite frames it appears that the system is becoming better organized, with better outflow out of all quads. Also it appears that the outer eye has contracted some over the last few frames, with deeper convection to help mix the winds down. Because of this we will unoffically upgrade back to cat2. The inner eye tried to reform, but it now appears that the outer eye is winning out once again. So area of tropical storm force winds are 120-140 nmi out from the center...So Bermuda has to watch this cyclone very closely.
The latest data out of cimss shows that the "steering layer" maps show that the high is centered to the east of the cyclone, with the weakness to its north. This is forcing the cyclone to slowly moving northward. The Gfs 850 millibar at 00z shows this nicely. It forecast the system to head northward for the next 48 hours, then a turn east-northeastward a a extratropical low pushs it. It doe's forecast a loop south or southeastward, like many of the other hurricane models including the GFDL after 120 hours. The cmc has a weak ridging to the north for the next 24 hours, this allows for the 1# trough to move out, and allowing for another trough 2# to pick it up around 60-72 hours. Our thinking is north or north-northwestward throughout the next 24-36 hours, followed by a northeastward track out to sea. We also forecast a slight strengthing as the outereye contracts some more throughout today.
Forecast
0 85 knots 29.6/62.7
6 90 knots 29.9/62.9
12 85 knots 30.5/62.7
24 80 knots 31.2/62.7
36 75 knots 32.4/61.2
48 65 knots 33.3/60.8
72 50 knots 34.9/58.5
Hurricane Bertha
2am pst/5am est
7-12-2008
winds 100 mph
pressure 974 millibars
movement north-northwestward at 3 knots
location 29.6/62.7
Bertha restrengthens to a cat2 as it is southeast of Bermuda.
The last recon found that Bertha had a flight level wind of 99 knots at 10 seconds, with 94 knots at 30 seconds. With the 99 knots that supports 100 mph with the cyclone...Overall over the last few satellite frames it appears that the system is becoming better organized, with better outflow out of all quads. Also it appears that the outer eye has contracted some over the last few frames, with deeper convection to help mix the winds down. Because of this we will unoffically upgrade back to cat2. The inner eye tried to reform, but it now appears that the outer eye is winning out once again. So area of tropical storm force winds are 120-140 nmi out from the center...So Bermuda has to watch this cyclone very closely.
The latest data out of cimss shows that the "steering layer" maps show that the high is centered to the east of the cyclone, with the weakness to its north. This is forcing the cyclone to slowly moving northward. The Gfs 850 millibar at 00z shows this nicely. It forecast the system to head northward for the next 48 hours, then a turn east-northeastward a a extratropical low pushs it. It doe's forecast a loop south or southeastward, like many of the other hurricane models including the GFDL after 120 hours. The cmc has a weak ridging to the north for the next 24 hours, this allows for the 1# trough to move out, and allowing for another trough 2# to pick it up around 60-72 hours. Our thinking is north or north-northwestward throughout the next 24-36 hours, followed by a northeastward track out to sea. We also forecast a slight strengthing as the outereye contracts some more throughout today.
Forecast
0 85 knots 29.6/62.7
6 90 knots 29.9/62.9
12 85 knots 30.5/62.7
24 80 knots 31.2/62.7
36 75 knots 32.4/61.2
48 65 knots 33.3/60.8
72 50 knots 34.9/58.5
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Tropical storm Bertha
2am pst/5am est
7-13-2008
Winds 60 mph
Pressure 986 millibars
movement southwestward at 1 knot
location
Bertha weakens to a tropical storm as upwelling takes its toll...
Bertha based on satellite looks to have weaken down to a moderate tropical storm, with sab showing 3.0, and cimss advance showing 2.4t. This is being caused by upwelling the storm has been causing the last few days. We expect as the system moves out of this cool spot, that the cyclone should restrength. Also satellite shows a slow southward motion as a high builds to its north.
Steering flow maps show that a weak high has formed to its north, with that the trough 1# gets to move out. With the high pressure building more northward, some shear has increased over the system...Still some what favorable for development once the cyclone moves over warmer waters. The 00z Gfdl shows north-northwestward motion to assume over the next 24 hours. Followed by a recurve once another weakness passes to its north around 84-96 hours. It then shows a east, then east-southeastward motion for a short time near the end. This is a very very hard forecast to make, because Bertha is a very hard storm to forecast, but we will give it a try. The Cmc shown more ridging yesterday with the Gfs, Gfdl showing the trough more pronouce, so we have to take them a little more seriously. The next weakness is pushs the ridge to the north out of the way by 40-48 hours based on 00z Gfs. The Gfs more or less with this run trys to make a loop at the end of its forecast run. Cmc also agree's with pushing the high to the north out of the way by 42-48 hours...This is followed by the high rebuilding to its north around 84-96 hours. Earlier then the Gfs. Many of the hurricane models forecast this system to move slowly north or even northeastward, then a southeast hook. The trick to this forecast is 1# when will the trough/weakness push the high to its north out of the way 2# when will it start moving. The longer it waits to move the farther south it will be by the time it turns eastward and possibly southeastward. Based on water vapor the next weakness/trough is near 90-95 west, that is at least 36-48 hours away. We will forecast slow movement through out the next 24-36 hours; in fact so slow it might kill the storm. But we will keep it a live with a possible restrengthing.
Forecast
0 50 knots 29.6/62.5
6 50 knots 29.7/62.6
12 45 knots 29.9/62.7
24 45 knots 30.0/62.9
36 50 knots 30.9/63.2
48 55 knots 31.6/63.0
72 65 knots 33.5/61.2
96 55 knots 34.4/58.8
120 45 knots 33.2/54.4
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Tropical storm Bertha
2am pst/5am est
7-13-2008
Winds 60 mph
Pressure 986 millibars
movement southwestward at 1 knot
location
Bertha weakens to a tropical storm as upwelling takes its toll...
Bertha based on satellite looks to have weaken down to a moderate tropical storm, with sab showing 3.0, and cimss advance showing 2.4t. This is being caused by upwelling the storm has been causing the last few days. We expect as the system moves out of this cool spot, that the cyclone should restrength. Also satellite shows a slow southward motion as a high builds to its north.
Steering flow maps show that a weak high has formed to its north, with that the trough 1# gets to move out. With the high pressure building more northward, some shear has increased over the system...Still some what favorable for development once the cyclone moves over warmer waters. The 00z Gfdl shows north-northwestward motion to assume over the next 24 hours. Followed by a recurve once another weakness passes to its north around 84-96 hours. It then shows a east, then east-southeastward motion for a short time near the end. This is a very very hard forecast to make, because Bertha is a very hard storm to forecast, but we will give it a try. The Cmc shown more ridging yesterday with the Gfs, Gfdl showing the trough more pronouce, so we have to take them a little more seriously. The next weakness is pushs the ridge to the north out of the way by 40-48 hours based on 00z Gfs. The Gfs more or less with this run trys to make a loop at the end of its forecast run. Cmc also agree's with pushing the high to the north out of the way by 42-48 hours...This is followed by the high rebuilding to its north around 84-96 hours. Earlier then the Gfs. Many of the hurricane models forecast this system to move slowly north or even northeastward, then a southeast hook. The trick to this forecast is 1# when will the trough/weakness push the high to its north out of the way 2# when will it start moving. The longer it waits to move the farther south it will be by the time it turns eastward and possibly southeastward. Based on water vapor the next weakness/trough is near 90-95 west, that is at least 36-48 hours away. We will forecast slow movement through out the next 24-36 hours; in fact so slow it might kill the storm. But we will keep it a live with a possible restrengthing.
Forecast
0 50 knots 29.6/62.5
6 50 knots 29.7/62.6
12 45 knots 29.9/62.7
24 45 knots 30.0/62.9
36 50 knots 30.9/63.2
48 55 knots 31.6/63.0
72 65 knots 33.5/61.2
96 55 knots 34.4/58.8
120 45 knots 33.2/54.4
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Personal forecast On Bertha!
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS or god products
Tropical storm Bertha
7-14-2008
2am pst/5am est
winds 65 mph
pressure 989 millibars est
movement north-northwest at 7 knots
location 31.4/63.4
Bertha starts moving north-northwestward close to Bermuda, expected to strengthen to hurricane strength.
Shear maps show the upper level shear is becoming more favorable, and as the cyclone moves back over warmer waters later today, we expect the cyclone to strengthen back to hurricane strength, if not hurricane strength. The last few frames show a increase of convection near the center, because it is moving out of the upwelling area it created. T-numbers out of sab show 2.5/3.0 out of sab, we will remain with 55 knots for this advisory. Tropical storm force winds are now effecting Bermuda...We expect those winds to possibly get up to 40-45 knots 1 minute later today.
Just as forecasted last night the trough made the ridge to the north of the cyclone to start weaking; this is allowing for the cyclone to move northward now. We expect a north-northwest motion through out today, followed by a northeast and then east-northeast motion, as a new short wave that is moving over the great lakes reenforces the weakness to the north and finally pushs this pest out to sea for good. But Gfs BAMM are the southern models for crying out load pushing it south-southeastward for a time. The Bamm almost south! We will go with the GFDL, UKMET models for this forecast.
We also expect the system to strengthen to just under hurricane strength by 12-24 hour time frame, after that the wind shear should increase, also the cooler waters should start to turn it extratropical after 48-60 hours. We don't expect this to merge with a extratropical system in the forecast range.
forecast
0 55 knots 31.4/63.4
6 60 knots 31.9/63.6
12 65 knots 32.7/63.6
24 65 knots 33.4/62.3
36 55 knots 34.2/59.5
48 45 knots 34.4/57.2
72 45 knots 34.8/55.5 becoming extratropical
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS or god products
Tropical storm Bertha
7-14-2008
2am pst/5am est
winds 65 mph
pressure 989 millibars est
movement north-northwest at 7 knots
location 31.4/63.4
Bertha starts moving north-northwestward close to Bermuda, expected to strengthen to hurricane strength.
Shear maps show the upper level shear is becoming more favorable, and as the cyclone moves back over warmer waters later today, we expect the cyclone to strengthen back to hurricane strength, if not hurricane strength. The last few frames show a increase of convection near the center, because it is moving out of the upwelling area it created. T-numbers out of sab show 2.5/3.0 out of sab, we will remain with 55 knots for this advisory. Tropical storm force winds are now effecting Bermuda...We expect those winds to possibly get up to 40-45 knots 1 minute later today.
Just as forecasted last night the trough made the ridge to the north of the cyclone to start weaking; this is allowing for the cyclone to move northward now. We expect a north-northwest motion through out today, followed by a northeast and then east-northeast motion, as a new short wave that is moving over the great lakes reenforces the weakness to the north and finally pushs this pest out to sea for good. But Gfs BAMM are the southern models for crying out load pushing it south-southeastward for a time. The Bamm almost south! We will go with the GFDL, UKMET models for this forecast.
We also expect the system to strengthen to just under hurricane strength by 12-24 hour time frame, after that the wind shear should increase, also the cooler waters should start to turn it extratropical after 48-60 hours. We don't expect this to merge with a extratropical system in the forecast range.
forecast
0 55 knots 31.4/63.4
6 60 knots 31.9/63.6
12 65 knots 32.7/63.6
24 65 knots 33.4/62.3
36 55 knots 34.2/59.5
48 45 knots 34.4/57.2
72 45 knots 34.8/55.5 becoming extratropical
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