Not insulting the NHC.... JUST WONDERING :?NHC 5 day Forecast???????
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Rainband
NHC 5 day Forecast???????
I read this on another board and am wondering the same thing??? What happened to the 5 day forecast...we were told we'd get???? Not insulting the NHC.... JUST WONDERING :?
Not insulting the NHC.... JUST WONDERING :?
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Air Force Met
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It's out. They issued it on Bill's first advisory...then went down to 4 days because Bill was not going to be around for day 5.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/di ... .001.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/di ... .001.shtml?
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wx247
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I noticed it on Dolores in the EPAC as well. I wondered the same thing about that on Bill, but now that the reason has been mentioned it makes sense. Thanks!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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weatherlover427
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS A MESS OF CONFLICTING SIGNALS TODAY. ON ONE SIDE...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS THAT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 45 KT FROM TAFB. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. JUST AS THE PLANE WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS... INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF 1006-1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE. THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 280/25. CLAUDETTE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A FAST EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE STORM WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AFTER 48 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U. S.. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING A RAPID WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY DECELERATION AND A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE WATCHED IS THAT THE TROUGH COULD TURN CLAUDETTE MORE NORTHWARD THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE WILL BE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN 72-96 HR...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION.
CLAUDETTE CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT RUN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER SOME WEAKENING OVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE WIND RADII ARE FAIRLY SMALL...OTHER NEAR-GALE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM CLAUDETTE. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.0N 71.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W 55 KT
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042003
2100Z TUE JUL 08 2003
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 71.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 71.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.0W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 71.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003
...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SPAWNS TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE...THE THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES...670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE NEAR JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PATH OF CLAUDETTE.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.0 N... 71.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Yep sure is.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS A MESS OF CONFLICTING SIGNALS TODAY. ON ONE SIDE...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS THAT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 45 KT FROM TAFB. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. JUST AS THE PLANE WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS... INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF 1006-1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE. THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 280/25. CLAUDETTE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A FAST EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE STORM WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AFTER 48 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U. S.. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING A RAPID WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY DECELERATION AND A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE WATCHED IS THAT THE TROUGH COULD TURN CLAUDETTE MORE NORTHWARD THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE WILL BE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN 72-96 HR...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION.
CLAUDETTE CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT RUN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER SOME WEAKENING OVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE WIND RADII ARE FAIRLY SMALL...OTHER NEAR-GALE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM CLAUDETTE. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.0N 71.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W 55 KT
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042003
2100Z TUE JUL 08 2003
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 71.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 71.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.0W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 71.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003
...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SPAWNS TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE...THE THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES...670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE NEAR JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PATH OF CLAUDETTE.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.0 N... 71.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Yep sure is.
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